Worse yet, to the extent that the census accurately counts illegal immigrants, the greater the disproportionate representation accruing to states with large illegal communities, which cannot vote. Estimates vary, but a 2007 study by the Connecticut Data Center found that the 2010 census may affect the allocation of a dozen congressional seats on the basis of some states’ illegal immigrant populations.
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Adding to the complexity of the problem, in states that gain such seats, many fewer votes are needed for a candidate’s election. That’s because the added seats mean there are fewer residents in each district and, in the districts with the highest number of illegal immigrants, fewer eligible voters. We do not know empirically whether these “cheaper” votes carry any political bias, but it is not unreasonable to worry that they do since the illegal immigrants counted who created the new seats are not represented by the eventual occupant in Congress. None of this is fair, in either the local or national context. And the 2010 census is certain to aggravate the situation. We should do something now to prevent this.

To be prudent, we should also consider a not implausible, worst-case scenario. Suppose that the Mexican government collapses, sending hundreds of thousands of refugees across the border. Those who manage to stay will be counted in a future census. Using current procedures, their presence would result in the shift of many congressional seats. States composed of mostly citizen populations would lose representation and quite rightly feel cheated.