The path to 216

Members and aides know Democrats aren’t there yet. Pelosi probably has a better sense for where the votes lie than anyone else in Washington does, but not even the speaker knows where those last votes will come from — or if they will come at all. Either way, all the effort over the next three or four days comes down to moving just four or five votes…

Pelosi can turn to liberal lawmakers like New York Rep. Eliot Engel or Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez, who some believe will be hard-pressed to vote against a bill that would provide insurance coverage to more than 30 million Americans, just because they don’t like everything in it.

And a pair of Californians — Reps. Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa — were accused on Rush Limbaugh’s radio show Wednesday of trading their votes to pump more water to the state’s economically ravaged Central Valley over the complaints of environmentalists in the state. Does that make it easier or harder to vote for a bill?

First-term Democrats are the most likely targets of intense lobbying pressure. But if Florida Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, Colorado Rep. Betsy Markey or New York Rep. Scott Murphy voted for the final product — after voting against it the first time – that could give their opponents ammunition to accuse them of flip-flopping on the issue, in already tough races in marginal seats.