House head count: 25 Democrats already likely no votes?

The 25 opposed include firm no votes and members who are likely no votes. Most Democrats on The Hill’s whip list are definitely going to vote no, but others, such as Reps. Lincoln Davis (Tenn.) and Harry Teague (N.M.), could vote yes.

However, The Hill has not yet put Democrats who are insisting on Rep. Bart Stupak’s (D-Mich.) language on abortion in the no category. Stupak has said there are 12 Democrats who supported the House bill in November who will vote no unless his anti-abortion-rights measure is melded into the final bill.

If leadership doesn’t make changes to the abortion language and Stupak does indeed have 12 votes in his pocket, it will be very difficult to pass a bill. Yet if they do change the provisions, supporters of abortion rights in the House will threaten to vote no…

Assuming every member votes, Democratic leaders could not afford more than 37 defectors, which would lead to a 216-215 tally.