Crunching the numbers: Pelosi doesn't have the votes

The least promising recruiting pool of all are the conservative Democrats who voted against the bill. Arguably last week’s bipartisan meeting at Blair House (morning session, afternoon session) was held entirely for their benefit. But are they grateful? Don’t count on it. After the November House vote, the New York Times assembled a very revealing chart that showed no fewer than 31 of the 39 House Democrats who voted nay represented districts that went for John McCain in the 2008 presidential election. Subtract Gordon, Tanner, and Baird, and you’re left with five potential targets: Scott Murphy, D-N.Y.; Glenn Nye, D-Va.; Larry Kissell, D-N.C.; John Barrow, D-Ga.; and Artur Davis, D-Ala.

Let’s assume Pelosi picks up all five. She’s still short by about eight votes. Let’s suppose she picks up all five, plus the three retiring members, plus the two dissenting liberals. (That isn’t going to happen.) That’s 10 votes, which still probably isn’t enough.

This is why I wrote the pope to request he give health care reform a papal dispensation. Without one, the bill will almost certainly fail.