Can they pass it?

I’ve been thinking hard about this subject for a couple days. I tried my best to come up with as many political pro’s and con’s for passing the health care bill – and you can see that the final count is 5-2, con.

Again, I’m not willing to put odds on anything, but this should make clear that there are major political hurdles left to jump, even if they can get a reconciliation bill through the Senate. Ultimately, the best news for reform advocates is that they only need maybe 15% to 40% of these previous defectors to come on board. In other words, most of them can continue to defy the President, and the bill can still pass.

Still, it will be no little feat to get any of those who voted against the bill in the fall to support it in the spring. A lot of the political problems have to do with the decaying political environment Democrats face. This matters a great deal! House members are inherently more sensitive to politics. This is as it was designed to be all the way back in 1787. Forcing Representatives to stand for reelection every two years makes them more responsive to the desires of their constituents, i.e. to politics. It’s one thing to pass a bill through the House in November, 2009. It’s another thing entirely to try it in April, 2010.