2010: Don't count the Democrats out just yet

Right now, the polling data show that the current situation differs from those historic campaigns in two important ways.

First, through most of the 2006 campaign, the opposition party was viewed more favorably than the incumbent party. In 1994, both parties were favorably rated by substantial majorities of the public; currently, neither is.

Second, opinions about President Barack Obama are not nearly as negative as were views of President George W. Bush in 2006 and are somewhat better than were opinions of President Bill Clinton for much of 1994. In fact, today, slightly more voters say they think of their vote next fall as a vote “for” Obama (24 percent) than as a vote “against” him (20 percent). Throughout most of 2006, roughly twice as many said they were voting against Bush as for him. And in three surveys during the fall of 1994, slightly higher percentages said they thought of their vote as against Clinton rather than for him.

So two things will have to happen for a reprise of 1994 or 2006 to occur. First, the Republicans will have to be seen as the party of change. The conventional wisdom argues that in times of discontent, the public votes for the out party, and that is often the case. But the margin of that vote will be determined by the extent to which voters see that party as worth taking a chance on.