Are centrists welcome at the tea party?

Still, the hurdles ahead for the movement are considerable. First, a third party needs a visible, credible leader. Ross Perot’s Reform Party tapped in to the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington mood of the early 1990’s because Perot convincingly made the case for many Americans. The Tea Party needs a strong voice to make a big impact. News reports of divisions within the movement as it gathers for a national convention are not a good sign. Secondly, independents, and swing voters generally, are for the most part centrists, who typically are not attracted to political extremes, their discontents notwithstanding.

That may be a significant problem for the Tea Party movement. In California, the Field Poll found that identification with the Tea Party movement was concentrated mostly among strong conservatives. About half (46%) of strong conservatives said they identified a lot with the Tea Party movement compared with only 13% of moderate conservatives and only 5% of middle-of-the-roaders. (One indication of its current appeal is that only 29% of Californians who identify with the Tea Party movement think that President Obama was born in the United States, according to the poll.)