In both on-the-record and background comments, Democratic operatives warn that if some improvement in the employment numbers doesn’t emerge before the 2010 elections, voters could focus their anger on the failure of the Obama administration’s $787 billion economic stimulus package to live up to White House claims. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Peter Orszag of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) both predict that the official unemployment rate will surge to 10% or more at the end of this year or early next year, with OMB adding that the budget deficit will be $1.5 trillion next year. As job losses mount, more out-of-work borrowers are falling behind on payments, with the home foreclosure rate up 33% over the past year.

“The one big thing Obama did that was supposed to help Joe Six-pack was the stimulus, but Joe is still out of work or he can only work part-time. That doesn’t help when he’s trying to promise the people a rose garden with this health bill,” said a Democratic media consultant who asked not to be publicly identified. “He hasn’t won their trust, and it shows up in the numbers.”

Democrat Begala says he thinks that “if President Obama and the Dems can prove that they’re able to govern, they will be in much better shape for the 2010 mid-terms.” But he also worries that “Obama is losing altitude among middle-aged, middle-class voters – the independents who were so critical to his success.” Begala observes that “Democrats in general, and Obama in particular, are facing a permanent decline in their support among seniors, as Roosevelt seniors [those who came of age during the new Deal] are replaced by Reagan seniors.” Obama’s promise to cut approximately $600 billion in Medicare spending is likely contributing to disaffection among voters over 65.