Hamas has lost heavily in the course of operation Cast Lead. The movement’s backers in Iran and allies in Hezbollah are understood to be disappointed and angry about its failure so far to inflict serious damage on the IDF in Gaza, and its generally lacklustre military performance. There are indications of splits between the Gazan and Damascus-based leaderships of the movement. The former are now more inclined to accept a ceasefire. The latter, under Iranian influence, are determined to fight on, regardless of the cost.

Hamas’s rhetoric of “muqawamma” (resistance) predicted a different outcome. The movement’s willingness to take casualties was meant to deter Israel from taking effective action, or force it to reverse itself before its goals were achieved. As things stand at present, the resistance model has therefore received a significant dent in the last days in Gaza.

If operation Cast Lead ends with minimal IDF losses, a severe blow struck at Hamas, no concessions to Islamist Gaza and significantly improved arrangements on the Egypt-Gaza border, this will constitute a significant achievement for Israel.