On Tuesday of this week, atomic scientists readjusted the Doomsday clock to 11:58:35, or 85 seconds to Midnight, the narrowest window pointing to mankind's purported annihilation ever.
Now keep in mind, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, which almost was the actual annihilation of humans if Russia and the U.S. started exchanging nuclear warheads, the clock was set to 11:53. It's a silly metric, and wholly unserious when considering the geopolitics of all that's going on, past and present. But if we're looking at the longetivity of the Iranian theocracy that's had a deadly iron grip on Persia for nearly 47 years, all indications are the mullahs' time is just about up.
President Donald Trump threatened to hit the world's largest state sponsor of terror with a strike unlike anything they'd ever seen if they carried out the public executions of 800 detained protesters from the freedom rallies in the streets. For a week between January 16th through January 23, Trump said that carnage would be something we and the world would not tolerate, and we'd do something about it. Trump gave the protesters in Iran the message to keep at it, help is on the way. Although with Iran's internet blackout, it's doubtful how much penetration into the movement that message from the President had.
Nevertheless, the President seemed to hedge his bet a bit after allegedly being asked by Sunni Arab states to give diplomacy another try in order to stave off a massive wave of instability in the Middle East, and Israel also asking to buy time in order to get prepared offensively and defensively in case of Iranian counterattacks.
Trump signaled that Iran had promised to halt the executions, which gave him, at least rhetorically, an off-ramp to put things on hold. The killings in the streets never stopped, but the hangings were put on hold. In the meantime, the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier group, the most lethal combination of vessels afloat in the world, pulled up anchor from the South China Sea and made haste to the Strait of Hormuz. Dozens of other elements of what is turning out to be one mother of an armada have now assembled, and a strike looks absolutely imminent.
The final decision to go or not go, and the timing of when hostilities commence, are known to Donald Trump and Donald Trump alone. But with the help of a wide array of open source intel online, it's not hard to read the tea leaves that you're about to see some serious excrement hit the proberbial fan very, very soon.
As to the "if" question, we'll get to the "when" part later, Donald Trump subtly changed his ultimatum this week. Instead of making the red line about continued assassinations and slaughter of Iranian citizens, the President went back to the original premise for the strikes on Iran's nuclear sites last summer - if you try to rebuild your nuclear program again, we'll come back and hit you even harder.
“…Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable deal - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS - one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP pic.twitter.com/H6qLbw3Ndi
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 28, 2026
As I said earlier, the killings or protesters in Iran have not stopped. Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies:
Iran’s Executions Have Not Stopped@FDD Iran expert @JanatanSayeh 👇 https://t.co/ciFpZDEI5D
— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) January 28, 2026
As for a response to Trump's 24-hour warning to cease and desist on the nuclear front, the word from Tehran was to get stuffed.
🚨BREAKING NEWS
— Aleksey Berezutski 🇷🇺🎖 (@aleksbrz11) January 28, 2026
Iran has stopped exchanging messages with the US through Oman, rejects all negotiations with Trump, and will not accept a deal.
-Axios
From the Wall Street Journal Wednesday afternoon:
Iran already has rejected some of Washington’s terms. A senior Iranian official said Tehran wouldn’t compromise on its right to continue enrichment for civilian purposes or to maintain its missile arsenal, which it considers necessary for its defense.
Even a U.S. offer to ease sanctions that have crushed the Iranian economy in return for accepting limits on its nuclear program would be hard for the regime to accept, since Khamenei has elevated the nuclear program into a symbol of Iran’s defiance of the West, analysts said.
Iran released videos taunting Trump and the U.S., using AI to simulate sinking the Lincoln and destroying the American military fleet. In short, Donald Trump has given them about as much time to comply as he can without looking like he's backing down. The only question is whether the delay to strike is about the decision at hand or buying time to get all the pieces on the board in the right spot to yield the highest likelihood of a quick and decisive victory.
On the movement of assets front, the Lincoln is pretty much ready to go, and has gone dark.
BREAKING: 🚨🇺🇸 USS Abraham Lincoln has gone dark, with no transponder or communication, signaling possible preparation for action against Iran. pic.twitter.com/SX0O7GIBUJ
— Globe Observer (@_GlobeObserver) January 29, 2026
And another carrier group is now on the way. Say hello to the U.S.S. George H.W. Bush.
BREAKING
— Frontalforce 🇮🇳 (@FrontalForce) January 28, 2026
A third US carrier strike group, USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), is moving into the Middle East theater.
Encircling Iran ? pic.twitter.com/sXq4UE6S8A
That's an awful lot of firepower. Included in those carrier groups are destroyers, submarines, as well as the jets on board the Lincoln and Bush. One destroyer, the Delbert D. Black, should be on station about now to help Israel with missile defense/intercepts.
US Navy guided missile destroyer USS Delbert D. Black (DDG 119) has been confirmed by officials as entering the region as of yesterday. It's last position was departing NSA Souda Bay, Crete on the 26th.
— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) January 28, 2026
It joins the USS Roosevelt (DDG 80) in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Both… https://t.co/ulUetefvj4
As for land assets, Secretary of State/National Security Advisor Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Wednesday that there were around 40,000 American troops stationed across eight or nine bases across the greater Middle East. That's a lot of well-trained bodies to throw at a problem if necessary.
With regard to air capabilities, besides the planes on the carriers, we had all sorts of other not normal flights taking place over the last couple days.
C5 Delivery to Al Udeid airbase https://t.co/yV5LpgkQNl pic.twitter.com/EuIa7U5QE8
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 28, 2026
Another U.S. Air Force C5 Super Galaxy is inn route, suggesting additional missile defense hardware is being moved toward the Middle East.
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 27, 2026
The flight is widely assessed to be transporting elements of THAAD or Patriot systems. pic.twitter.com/XxumjXchJJ
US Navy P-8A Poseidon is actively loitering along Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast, near Kuwait–Dammam.
— OSINT_PK (@osintPk) January 28, 2026
This aircraft hunts submarines and naval movements, it doesn’t circle like this without reason. pic.twitter.com/B7yL8mlHST
It landed in Qatar a few hours ago.
— Iran Spectator (@IranSpec) January 29, 2026
Now it makes sense to say strikes are imminent. pic.twitter.com/ZcQr74BnEM
What is this bad boy, you ask?
🎯 Primary Mission - Real‑time SIGINT collection: Intercepts communications, radar emissions, and other electronic signals. - Onboard analysis: Specialists analyze intercepted data while still airborne, enabling rapid decision‑making. - Intelligence dissemination: Sends processed intelligence directly to theater and national‑level command authorities.
🛠 Capabilities - Detects, identifies, and geolocates signals across the electromagnetic spectrum. - Supports battlefield awareness by revealing enemy positions, radar systems, and communication networks. - Integrates with other ISR and electronic warfare platforms, such as the U‑2, RQ‑4 Global Hawk, and EA‑37B Compass Call.
🌍 Operational Use - Extensively used in conflicts and surveillance missions since the Cold War. - Provides near real‑time intelligence to tactical forces and national leadership.
B-52's have been sighted in the region, and no one's seen hide nor hair of the B-2's. That doesn't mean anything, because last summer, even when we did think we knew the things were on or around Diego Garcia, the Pentagon played an aerial shell game with them so no one really knew which way they were coming and how long it would take for them to get there. They're flying ghosts. But you know they're going to be in the mix, especially if the Ayatollah and senior leadership of the IRGC have gone into underground bunkers.
Internationally, some very interesting developments in the last 48 hours indicate something big is about to happen.
The EU all of a sudden has decided the next thing on their agenda is to declare the IRGC a terrorist group. Curious timing, that.
EU’s Kaja Kallas said the bloc is moving toward designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 29, 2026
“I expect that we will agree on listing the IRGC on the terrorist list. This will put them on the same footing as Al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Daesh. If you act as a terrorist, you should… pic.twitter.com/I2GFD9iXUm
As for the diplomats of those EU countries stationed in the Middle East? They're bugging out.
According to current reports, military aircraft from Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Spain are currently pouring into the region to evacuate their diplomatic delegations from the Middle East.
— Daily Iran News (@DailyIranNews) January 28, 2026
Turkey's Recep Erdogan is reportedly attempting a last-second trilateral meeting between the U.S. and Iran, with Turkey playing the role of mediator. There can't be much to discuss, because Iran has no good faith to bring to the table from any previous negotiation, and Donald Trump seems tired of being strung along.
With the airborne intel assets in place, and with Israel effectively providing their arsenal as a fourth carrier group, Iran is about out of moves. Russia might previously have been regarded as additional help, potentially, possibly turning this into a world war. But Putin seems to have all he can handle with the Ukranians, and Donald Trump playing havoc with the illicit oil shipment trade. That leaves China. No one's heard from them since Donald Trump drank their milkshake in Greenland, but they have quietly flown in weapons and resources of late to bolster the Iranian regime in their attempt to kill as many civilians as possible to quell the rebellion. Will they show an interest in getting more kinetically involved if the hammer drops on Tehran? Doubtful. The CCP's naval assets are as of yet untested in combat, and I'm confident they do not want to conduct those tests in actual combat outside of the South China Sea.
The pieces are in place, and the mullahs are cornered and weakened more than they've been since Ayatollah Khomeini stepped off the plane 47 years ago. Hezbollah is holding their fire, for now, Hamas is no longer an issue, and the Houthis might have toyed with Joe Biden's navy a year ago, but will be destroyed if they get involved in this fight.
It's January 29th. Donald Trump has shown a propensity for taking kinetic action on weekends. Remember a little bit ago when I said it was 47 years since Khomeini stepped off the plane in Tehran? That date was February 1st. The anniversary is Sunday. Wouldn't that be poetic to begin destroying the regime on the same day it was ushered in all those years ago?
Will it begin with a blockade to keep Iran from exporting any oil, literally starving them to death of cash and refined gasoline? Will the strike consist of pinpoint strikes on leadership positions, including a decapitation strike against Ali Khamenei? Will there be a cyber component to take away the abiliyt of the mullahs to exercise command and control? The funny thing is the Israelis have already made communications harder for Iran now because of what they did last summer.
Senior and regular members of IRGC and Iranian army have been instructed to disconnect their phones.
— Brian’s Breaking News and Intel (@intelFromBrian) January 28, 2026
They have been ordered not to communicate with phones due to fear that they will be tracked and killed in the incoming war with US/Israel
The people of Tehran are ready for a change. They just can't affect that change with their bare hands. That's where the will of Donald Trump and the American military come in. With the assets in place, it shouldn't take long to allow the Iranian populace to serve as the ground force to finish off the regime once and for all.
It's just about Midnight, Mr. President. By uttering the word, "Go", it could be morning in Tehran as well as morning in America again by the time you leave office, and history will record that you will have done more good for the world than any leader since World War II.
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