Boxing Khamenei

In 1993, Julian Sands and Sherilyn Fenn starred in a pretty awful avant-garde movie called Boxing Helena. As the movie progressed, the psychotic obsession an Atlanta surgeon had for his neighbor resulted in amputating both her legs, and then, her arms so that she would be completely under his control. It was a horrible movie, portraying a pretty horrible existence, before revealing it was all just a dream. But if you substitute Helena out and replace her with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that's pretty much the box in which he now finds himself. 

In short, the previous fortnight did more to reset the post-World War II order created by the United States than any other period of history in my lifetime. With the coordinated B-2 strikes, along with the mop-up work by our submarines and Nimitz carrier group forces, along with increased capability and resolve by Israel, now having emerged as the regional hegemony in the Middle East, lessons to be learned are available for allies and adversaries alike all over the world. 

Retired Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avivi appeared on Fox News Tuesday with Martha MacCallum. America is back. 



Iran pulled off the unthinkable in a week. The new axis of evil - China, Russia, and Iran, has disintegrated. Vladimir Putin not only pulled the Pastor Johnson card from Blazing Saddles, saying, "Son, you're on your own," he went further by calling up Donald Trump and offered help to handle Iran. Trump's response? Thanks, but no thanks. 



And after the strike on Iran's nuclear sites of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan Friday night, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, signaled he was going to retaliate by closing off the Straits of Hormuz, which also happens to be the choke point for about 80% of China's imported crude oil. Xi Jinping disabused Khamenei very quickly of that idea, and has indicated that they're willing to walk away from their previous alliance with the terror state. From the Times of Israel:

Somewhere over the mountains of Azerbaijan, unmarked planes slipped into the sky, carrying Chinese engineers, techs, and advisors out of Iran. No manifest. No press. Just a silent exfiltration of over 1,600 personnel — the kind of move you don’t make unless you know what’s coming. 

Beijing called it a ‘routine precaution.’ That’s diplomatic code for: *we’re done here.* Most of the world missed it. But anyone watching the quiet war unfolding beneath the headlines saw it for what it was — a high-level disengagement from a burning front. 

Beijing may still be preaching restraint and calling for a “constructive role” in the Israel–Iran conflict. But behind the careful press releases and neutral tones, it’s not stepping in. It’s stepping out. Quietly. Strategically. Completely.

So Iran managed to isolate itself from the rest of the world. Their proxies of choice - Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, have been degraded of both weapons and terrorists. Could they reload? Sure. But Iran would have to have the cash and resources with which to reload, and they no longer have either in much supply. 

Natasha Bertrand of CNN, formerly of NBC, was the talk of the Beltway Tuesday with a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment of the Fordow strike, breathlessly reporting that the strike didn't slow the Iranian nuclear program significantly at all. The problem, of course, is within 24 hours, the people what actually would know, The Israelis and Americans, revealed that the destruction was pretty complete.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth from NATO:

Secretary of State Marco Rubio from NATO:

Donald Trump from NATO:

Former CIA director David Petraeus on Fox News with Will Cain:

The secretary-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi with Martha MacCallum on Fox News:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran's nuclear program just went down the drain:

Bertrand, and the Trump-hating Resistance Media, are so committed to wishcasting this narrative that Trump's actions didn't matter, they're beginning to resemble the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. You know who else is in agreement with the assessment about the current state of Iran's nuclear program being Tango Uniform? The Iranians. 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei on Wednesday confirmed the country’s nuclear facilities had been “badly damaged” in American strikes over the weekend, amid clashing evaluations on the extent of the success of operations against Tehran’s nuclear program. 

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Baghaei refused to go into detail but conceded the Sunday strikes by American B-2 bombers using bunker-buster bombs had been significant. 

“Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure,” he said.

But don't take all these people's word for it. Take Natasha's word for it, because she saw the initial assessment that was branded "low confidence" regarding its own assessment, and that the damage could either be limited or severe. She just chose to not report the 'could be severe' part. That's just crackerjack reportage. 

Another sidebar narrative currently rippling through the media's bloodstream is that the Iranians allegedly trucked out usable enriched uranium, perhaps as much as 400 kilos of the stuff, before the strike on Fordow. The narrative then says because of the missing uranium that has been squirreled away, the Iranians are somewhere madly assembling a bomb and we're just hours or days away from the mother of all responses. 

First, Trump's not buying it. 

But let's play Devil's advocate and give the Trump-hating Resistance Media their premise that the uranium was moved. As Byron York on X noted, it doesn't pass the smell test. 

The one known truth that is not in dispute by anyone in the world is how thoroughly Israel has penetrated Iran with intelligence assets. Whether it was trucking in drones as part of the initial attack two weeks ago, or the ghosts of human intelligence that has shocked and awed in their ability to target nuclear scientists, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, air defense systems, ballistic missile launchers, and other strategic infrastructure with little to no collateral damage, Iran as a sovereign state was, and remains, entirely naked, defensively speaking. None of that goes away with the ceasefire coming in. 

As part of that intelligence, It is unconfirmed, but makes all the logical sense in the world being that the United States and Israel were in full coordination during America's bombing run last weekend, that our B-2's released those dozen or so Bunker Busters that hit with absolute precision most likely because there were Israelis on the ground painting the targets. There were literally eyes on all of the nuclear sites, but especially Fordow, for a long time. To buy into the theory that the Iranians just snuck stuff out without the Israelis knowing it doesn't fly. 

If you want to entertain a fun possibility, let's say the Iranians did truck out their weapons-grade uranium. You would also have to assume that the Israelis knew it as soon as it was happening. Who's to say that the Mossad didn't run a Red October, and that whatever material was in question has a new home safe from being used for anything nefarious again? I'd think that's more plausible, but that's only if you want to buy into the report that they snuck it out in the first place. The more likely scenario is whatever uranium was in Fordow is now buried under thousands of tons of rock and mountain. 

As for the Iranian intent to restart and rebuild, beginning with attempting to get to that enriched uranium buried at Fordow, again, nothing has changed on the ground. Both the U.S. and Israel are watching. If one Iranian sinks a shovel into the top of the rock pile to start digging it out, he won't make it home that night. Israel retains both the capability and willingness to act preemptively if Iran begins to cheat on the ceasefire. And Iran is currently powerless to do anything to stop it. 

But now we get to the biggest lesson learned from just the last few days. There was a legitimate unanswered question of whether or not Ali Khamenei was a true believer, or just another despot in a long line of autocrats in world history that are perfectly willing to fight to the death, so long the dying is done by other people. 

If Khamenei were a true cultist, a believer in the 12th or Hidden Imam sect of Islam that believes ushering in global chaos is what uncaps the well somewhere, releasing their messiah to come in and set everything straight, then the ceasefire now orchestrated by Donald Trump is premature, and nothing will change in their desire to move forward with the annihilation of both the Big and Little Satan (the U.S. and Israel). If Khamenei is a true believer, he would not have called the White House to come to the table and negotiate. He would have been more than willing to become a martyr and die for his cause. But over the course of the last 72 hours, that's not what Khamenei did, is it? He did not act like he believed the Mahdi's return was imminent. He did not embrace becoming a martyr. He wants to negotiate a way to live and perhaps fight another day. 

That answers the question of whether he's a murderous, but rational monster or a religious zealot, and now that we know, it changes the dynamic entirely. Khamenei, when you cut through all of the rhetoric, wants to live another day. He's not ready to check out. Which means, we, the United States, and especially Israel, now own him - lock, stock and barrel. 

Could revolution come to Iran and overthrow the theocracy? Sure. And if that happens organically, I'd encourage the people seeking freedom from afar and help in any way possible. In the meantime, however, Khamenei's human survival instinct has now placed his clusters, or using the Boxing Helena analogy, a limbless torso in a box that rests on a desk somewhere in Jerusalem. Israel knows where Khamenei is at all times. If anyone in leadership twitches in the direction of restarting the nuclear program, Israel can and will end Khamenei's life, and that's only if Donald Trump doesn't beat them to it. Khamenei now rises every day at the pleasure of the one true God and His chosen people in the land God gave him. He's been checkmated. 

If money flows to proxy groups, the U.S. and Israel will know, and that's the end of him. No more need for nuclear deals, no more need for any of that. The leverage is gone. There is no more listening to complaints filed at the United Nations. Europe leaders have not criticized the 12-day war with Iran. Things have changed.

Even if you believe Iran snuck the uranium out, and they have it somewhere else safe in Iran and intend to build bombs with it, they don't have the other implements of destruction necessary to finish the assembly process they once had at the other nuclear sites of Natanz and Isfahan. They no longer have a functional ballistic missile program, nor the personnel to design and build them. There are Israeli eyes and ears literally on everything sensitive in the country, and that number of surveillance operative will only increase in the coming months because again, Khamenei is powerless to stop it. He's been compromised. Iran no longer has a functional standing army or navy to speak of, and the prison that used to house political dissidents has been hit. Iran now has enough on their plate just to keep the regime in power, let alone project power elsewhere.

Now that Iran has been taken off the table as a viable threat for the foreseeable future, let the next round of Abraham Accords begin to bloom. There is still hard work ahead for Israel with Hamas and Hezbollah holdouts that are the true believers, as we saw in the death of seven Israeli soldiers in Southern Gaza when their armored vehicle was hit by a Hamas terrorist's explosive. The cost has been extraordinarily high for Israel going back to October 7th, and honestly, for decades before that. No one should minimize the human and psychological toll on Israelis and Americans, and for that matter, Sunni Arabs as well, by the evil regime emanating from Tehran. But not to recognize a victory so complete it had to have a hand of Divine Providence guiding it would also be a mistake. It's nothing short of miraculous to see where the Middle East rests compared to what it looked like even a month ago. 

The next report you see in media about 'but Trump this', or 'Trump that,' say a prayer for another moment of God's providence. A quarter of an inch, a slight turn of the head in Butler, Pennsylvania 11 months ago, and the United States, the Middle East, and the entire world would look a lot different, and very likely more menacing, than it does right now.