An amazing dynamic to the 2024 presidential campaign took place this weekend in front of the leaked announcement of Joe Biden’s intention to seek the Democratic nomination and run for a second term. If the leak is accurate, the announcement could come sometime Tuesday…or Wednesday. The days kind of run together for Biden lately.
In 1972, we had CREEP – the committee to re-elect the president. This time, it might as well be named CREAKY – Can’t Refute Extreme Age’ll Kill You. Everyone on both sides knows Joe Biden’s age is his biggest weakness. Those on the right would also point to his policy failures, both foreign and domestic. Democrats would point out those failures are a feature, not a bug. But all can agree that his age is a problem. The real question is what is going to be done about it.
And it’s not just among Washington insiders that Biden’s age, and how to spin it, is being discussed in advance of the announcement. It’s rank and file Americans, allegedly talking to pollsters, that resulted in more than a trivial amount of time on the Sunday shows addressing the 800-year old gorilla in the corner. In short, according to recent polling, well, I’ll let Steve Carrell finish it.
Yes, that’s the question that seems to be sweeping American voters, according to pollsters. NBC News unveiled a brand-new poll on Meet the Press. Here’s Chuck Todd with the details.
CNN’s John King had a similar report on the president’s age not polling too well right now.
So what possibly could have happened to cause that sentiment to take root in the American electorate? Well, here’s a gag reel from just the last week or so.
Biden at least has an excuse. He’s old. His vice president, Kamala Harris, had about as good a week as Biden had in the rhetoric department, but doesn’t have the ability to blame her gaffes on senior moments. She’s just an idiot.
It was on ABC’s This Week panel that Terry Moran brought up their polling, and the age question, and put their finger on what the problem is, and what the Democratic Party are banking on. Former North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp punctuated the point.
Yes, he’s old. We all know it, But he’s got a record to run on, says Democrats, especially if you compare him to Trump. That’s their answer. That’s how they’re going to run the auxiliary surrogate campaign to drag him across the finish line. Sure, he’s old, but he’s not Trump. Okay, people don’t want to vote for the old guy, but they don’t want to vote for Trump, either. They keep claiming he’s got a record to run on, but any Republican candidate who isn’t focused on themselves could destroy that argument in a nanosecond. The record is disastrous, and honestly, Democrats know it. But they’re banking on Republicans nominating Trump, which will be a great relief to them, because then they believe they have a better than even chance of winning.
Imagine what the spin would have been this weekend if Tim Scott were perceived to be getting into the race as a younger black Republican senator? How do you think Biden would stack up against someone a lot younger with a significantly more interesting life story, an ability to articulate and tell it passionately, and actually propose solutions for the future?
What do you think the story would be if the perceived GOP frontrunner were Ron DeSantis? Sure, you’d run into the Disney stuff, the parents’ rights act that the left will lie about as the ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill, the budding authoritarian nonsense, but that would be pretty weak sauce. DeSantis is young, very accomplished, and wildly popular in Florida, and in one SRO event after event on his book tour. Biden’s age would be magnified and intensified if he were on the stage with someone 30 years younger, superior in communication skills, superior in legislative or governing accomplishments, and not having the baggage of a criminal family enterprise he’s trying to cover up. But no, there is some peace of mind in Washington amongst the liberal establishment – media and elected, that as of now, Biden’s saving grace is that he’ll probably have to run against Trump.
The Wall Street Journal jumped into the fray over the weekend on this topic. Karen has a good write-up on it. I used to have the theory that if the Democrats ran with someone younger than Biden, for whatever reason, that would essentially take Trump off the playing field, because the age factor would work against him. I now think you could reverse the polarity and have the same result. In the first Republican primary contests, caucus and primary (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida), you’d have to say that DeSantis would have the edge in Florida and New Hampshire. Current Governor Chris Sununu said recently that if the primary were held today in New Hampshire, DeSantis would probably win it. Iowa is a caucus, which no one can predict, and you’d have to say that Nevada is not a strong Trump state. DeSantis actually might play well there. Then you’d probably have South Carolina splitting the vote between Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, two South Carolinians.
It’s possible Trump could be 1-5 at best, and possibly shutout in the early going. If it appears the tide is turning and the Republicans might be galvanizing towards the next generation, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there’s another announcement that due to a sudden health issue, Biden can’t continue his candidacy. They’d have to young it down, because they all know they’re doomed if it’s Biden against anyone younger than him. Which is why Gavin Newsom is out there lurking, just in case. Until then, however, you get this.
Which I’m sure totally happened, especially when the last time he told this story, the oil rain was falling on his mother’s car in a different state going to school. And the last time he told it, unlike this time, he got cancer because of it.
While Trump is still in play, Democrats won’t rock the boat too much. They’ll go with Biden, because he’s a less worse option. But don’t underestimate the age problem. It’s deep-seated. Listen to the advice from this California Democrat caller into C-SPAN last week.
When you’re getting unsolicited pleas from Democrat voters in California of all places on how to not appear on stage resembling Tim Conway’s Old Man from his Carol Burnett skits, you’ve got a problem.