Hmmmm. Could Democrats see a shot at flipping Texas in November? Or do they just have Beto Fever ... again?
The truth may lie in between. The New York Times reports today that Chuck Schumer's super PAC has begun spending significant cash in support of James Talarico, the Democrat nominee for U.S. Senate in the Lone Star State. The NYT reports this as a sign of "confidence" in Talarico, bolstered by the polling data over the last few weeks. Talarico had largely disappeared from the airwaves in Texas before now:
Top national Democrats are preparing to make an initial investment in the Texas Senate race, a strategic shift that speaks to the party’s growing confidence in a state that has dashed its hopes for decades.
The main super PAC for Senate Democrats, Senate Majority PAC, said on Tuesday that it would begin an advertising effort meant to help James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, by targeting his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton.
The super PAC, which is aligned with Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, had so far resisted spending money in Texas, viewing the party’s path to a majority as running through smaller states where advertising is cheaper.
Is this really a sign of confidence? Perhaps. However, it may also be a sign of desperation. Susan Collins has reasserted control in Maine over Troy Jackson and appears ready to close out Schumer's attempt to gain the majority through a flip there. Abdul El-Sayed has become an embarrassment with his wingman Hasan Piker, and Mike Rogers looks set to flip that seat to the GOP. Democrats will likely flip North Carolina after Thom Tillis' retirement and may pick up a seat in Iowa, but they need four flips to take control of the Senate, and Talarico is about their last option to even get close.
And even then, the investment that Schumer will make in Texas doesn't exactly scream "confidence" anyway, even by the NYT's own reporting:
The group declined to provide a figure or a range for its planned spending in Texas. For now, it will run statewide ads only on YouTube and other digital and streaming platforms and forgo more expensive television ads that could drain the super PAC's resources. That suggests that national Democrats are not yet prepared to go all-in for Mr. Talarico.
Ahem. It's almost October now, and we're six weeks away from Election Day. Early voting is about to start throughout the state in the next two weeks. This is a low-risk and likely low-impact contribution to a campaign that has apparently dissipated itself over the summer.
At the moment, Talarico barely appears on television at all. His main message now in his occasional TV spots is a class-warfare argument against "billionaires" in government and healthcare. This is a swipe at Ken Paxton and the GOP's reliance on Elon Musk's America PAC, which is spending money to flood the airwaves for Paxton. That might have been an effective argument, except that Talarico got an $11.5 million boost this summer from billionaire megadonor Reid Hoffman, well before Musk's intervention:
Billionaire and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman gave $10 million to support James Talarico’s Texas Senate bid against Republican Ken Paxton in a pivotal race for Democrats’ bid to take over the Senate.
The LinkedIn cofounder’s donation in support of the Texas state lawmaker was the largest gift to a super PAC in the second quarter of this year, Bloomberg reported, citing Federal Election Commission filings.
He previously donated $1.5 million to support Talarico, who is running in a close race with Paxton, who defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, with the help of President Donald Trump’s endorsement in a primary runoff earlier this year.
Talarico has also apparently begun leaning into a "What Would Jesus Do" message to push for government control over all social services. That has become a staple of his stump speech and may show up in some of his digital advertising. I may tackle that separately, but let's just say that it's not a compelling argument to Christians outside the progressive environs in which Talarico has spent his life marinating.
With that said, Republicans had better take notice in Texas. The polling this year has been atrocious, and so it's easy to dismiss. However, the same polls that show Talarico with narrow leads in this race also show Greg Abbott with narrow leads over Democrat gubernatorial challenger Gina Hinojosa. There is less enthusiasm here for Paxton than for Abbott, and the GOP needs to find ways to correct that before Paxton loses a seat he should win. The risk isn't ticket-splitting as much as it may be that voters may mark the ballot for Abbott and skip over the Senate race. It's time to close the deal here in Texas and send Talarico to Beto-land.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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