Has the Strait of Hormuz crisis found a resolution? Or has Lucy teed up the football again? Two key players in Donald Trump's strategy on Iran have signaled that an agreement to permanently unlock the Strait and end the Hormuz standoff may emerge in a matter of hours. At the same time, though, other reports suggest that the Iranians are still attempting to cut a side deal with Oman to freeze the US out entirely.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just told CNBC that a deal is imminent, or at least imminent-ish:
🚨 JUST NOW: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent announces a deal could be struck today or tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz, oil is now PLUNGING below $80
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 4, 2026
"I think there's a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait."
"President Trump threatened the largest… pic.twitter.com/KWS3bswY2L
"President Trump threatened the largest military campaign since World War II against the Iranians."
"Because of that, we are in talks with the Iranians."
Bessent's concerns extend past oil, although the news did have a large impact on crude prices this morning. Forbes reports on Bessent's extended comments on other commerce transiting the Strait of Hormuz:
“Once the strait reopens, there are hundreds if not a thousand ships sitting in there waiting to go out,” Bessent said, referring to ships trapped in the waterway during the months-long conflict that began on February 28. “It’s not just energy, it’s fertilizer, it’s refined products, it’s various industrial gasses, so I think that we could see a big relief trade as those prices go down.”
True enough ... as far as it goes. Other reports, notably from Reuters, suggest that the Iranians have a completely different approach to these negotiations, and may not be talking to the US at all:
Although Bessent insisted a future deal would include “freedom of movement,” a Reuters report published on Tuesday morning said Iran was expecting to maintain control of inbound traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in a deal being negotiated with Oman, citing an Iranian source. Outbound traffic would take a route between the two countries, and Iran would maintain oversight on those traffic lanes as well.
Despite Iran’s past insistence they were not directly negotiating with the U.S., Trump said on Monday the talks were “going on right now.” The president said he called off strikes over the weekend, which he claimed would have been “harder than any attack… since World War II.” Trump said the talks were “backed” by other countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” he said later.
Iran has tried to get Oman to agree to a route that forces all traffic to transit Iranian waters, rather than allow shipping to use current international-water routes. That would allow Iran the ability to freeze traffic in the Strait and leverage the economic impact, a kind of financial piracy that the US has adamantly opposed, and for good reason. Trump has insisted that Hormuz traffic return to the prewar rules without any interference from any Gulf states, including Iran.
In fact, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a few minutes ago in a separate venue, the Strait of Hormuz is already open under the protection of the US Navy, and that will not change. He also said that an agreement is expected to emerge shortly, although it has not yet materialized:
Secretary of State Marco Rubio:
— Tabz (@TabzLIVE) August 4, 2026
There's a conversation and a negotiation that we are involved in between Oman and Iran on how more ships can be able to go through the Strait of Hormuz safely in the short term as we move towards these longer-term talks about denuclearization.… pic.twitter.com/Fh5Bdjk3pG
Rubio was cautious to limit the claims to the Hormuz crisis rather than the war itself, the Times of Israel notes:
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says progress has been made on a deal with Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though there still is some work to go.
“There’s been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet,” Rubio tells reporters at the State Department.
Rubio reiterates that the deal currently under discussion only deals with Hormuz and that an additional deal will need to be signed pertaining to Iran’s nuclear program.
That's why Iran wants to cut its deal with Oman. It needs the Strait of Hormuz as leverage when it comes to the next phase of negotiations, assuming it takes place at all.
So the question remains: Is a deal really in the offing, or is this just another Lucy-and-the-football ploy from the IRGC? The latter has been the safe bet every step of the way so far. Even if a deal emerges that returns us to the prewar status quo ante, we've already been there, too. Iran has refused to abide by those terms on several occasions already. The only way to force them into compliance is to finally give the geen light to Bridge and Power Day, and Trump's reluctance to do so has sent a pretty clear message to the IRGC, it seems. Perhaps this time it will be different, but I'm not betting on that outcome from a regime that has never abided by an agreement in its 47-year history.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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