Donald Trump has two problems. He may have one solution at hand.
Tuesday's Texas primary left the GOP with a massive hangover, one that could cost tens of millions of dollars and significant internecine damage. John Cornyn narrowly edged Ken Paxton in the primary but fell far short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff in May. The surprise victory of James Talarico over Jasmine Crockett arguably gives Democrats a shot at winning the seat in November, or at least some improved positioning. Trump made it clea yesterday that he wants to avoid the runoff, and will announce his endorsement soon to force the other candidate to withdraw.
How does Trump force the non-endorsed candidate to withdraw rather than fight? The easiest way is to offer them a good position in the administration. And coincidentally, one may be opening up soon:
President Donald Trump has quietly asked Hill Republicans if he should fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, the latest sign of her tenuous standing inside the West Wing, according to multiple Republicans who have spoken with the president.
Even Speaker Mike Johnson speculated about the potential for a change at the top of DHS during a recent House Republican elected leadership retreat in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Trump dialed up some GOP senators after Noem testified in front of the Senate and House Judiciary panels on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Those appearances were marked by extraordinarily bitter exchanges between Noem and Democratic lawmakers, especially over Trump’s harsh immigration crackdown.
But some of the most notable exchanges, especially in the Senate hearing, were with Republicans.
NRO's Audrey Fahlberg follows up on this Punchbowl report to reveal Trump's anger at Noem for insisting he knew about her $220 million ad campaign, which largely promoted Noem herself:
President Donald Trump is privately furious with Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem for suggesting in her Senate Judiciary Committee testimony on Tuesday that he gave advance approval of a taxpayer-funded $220 million ad campaign contract that was subcontracted to one of her allies, National Review has learned.
The president is frustrated that the embattled cabinet secretary repeatedly suggested under oath that the president was aware of the multi-million-dollar ad campaign — which featured Noem prominently — and approved its release before the agency greenlit the contract, according to a source familiar with the president’s thinking. ...
These frustrations have prompted the president to privately express his openness to replacing her, according to a person familiar with the matter. One name he has begun floating this week as a potential replacement: Oklahoma’s junior U.S. Senator Markwayne Mullin.
Mullin would certainly be a solid choice for a Noem replacement. A member of the Senate would likely have less difficulty with confirmation, too. However, the GOP is already leery about the prospects for holding the Senate in November. This would force an immediate special election as soon as Mullin took the job, as Ballotpedia reminds us:
The special election must be announced within 30 days after the vacancy occurs. Within 10 days of this announcement, a three-day filing period must occur. Within 20 days of the close of the candidate filing period, a special primary must take place. A primary runoff, if required, must take place within 20 days of the special primary. The special general election must take place within 20 days of the special primary runoff. If the vacancy occurs during an even-numbered year, it must be filled at the regular primary and general elections.
Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt, a Republican, would appoint an interim replacement, but the last thing the GOP needs in 2026 is another special election, even one that takes place in November.
Trump has other options outside the Senate. Specifically, he has a high-profile MAGA figure with significant law-enforcement and security experience in Texas who needs a soft landing if Trump pushes him out of the runoff. Paxton would have a rocky confirmation hearing, but Trump still has 53 Republicans in the upper chamber and J.D. Vance on hand to cement the confirmation. Paxton would get a high-profile role, which would allow him to exit the runoff with grace, and the MAGA base would get a win on border security and immigration enforcement. Cornyn would then get a clear path to go after Talarico and avoid a messy rift between the populists and the conservative establishmentarians. And Trump would get Noem out of the way without signalling any retreat on immigration and border security.
Seems like a win-win, at least in the short run for Trump, although Paxton's personal and professional baggage might not make it look like a clean win. Trump still hasn't announced his endorsement yet, but he's more likely to choose Cornyn anyway, for reasons I explained yesterday. It's worth considering in the West Wing, if Trump really is angry enough with Noem to make the first Cabinet change in this term.
Update: Trump was likely leaning toward Cornyn anyway, but Paxton's poor timing may push Trump harder in that direction:
President Donald Trump appears to be leaning toward endorsing Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas GOP Senate primary, issuing a stark warning to state Attorney General Ken Paxton in an interview with POLITICO.
The president, in a brief phone conversation Thursday morning, said an endorsement will be “made pretty soon” before addressing Paxton, who recently said he would not drop out of the race even if Trump endorses Cornyn.
“Well, that’s bad for him to say,” Trump said. “That is bad for him. So maybe, maybe that leads me to go the other direction.”
Cornyn, for his part, has been wise enough to maintain discretion:
Cornyn en route to the TX GOP delegation lunch
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) March 5, 2026
Pergram: Have you have any communication with the President?
Cornyn: I'm not really comfortable talking about my conversations with the president.
Pergram: So you have had a conversation with him?
Cornyn: On a regular basis.…
Update: The Wall Street Journal and ABC News both report that Trump's about to go the full Apprentice:
President Trump is preparing to fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, according to advisers familiar with his thinking.
The president has already been asking aides and congressional Republicans for names of potential replacements, the advisers said.
We'll see. Noem's days looked numbered after Trump put Tom Homan in charge of DHS functions in Minnesota, at least during Operation Metro Surge. Trump may still feel that a new confirmation process won't be worth it.
Update: Trump has indeed pushed Noem out, but has chosen to replace her with Sen. Markwayne Mullin:
I am pleased to announce that the Highly Respected United States Senator from the Great State of Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS), effective March 31, 2026. The current Secretary, Kristi Noem, who has served us well, and has had numerous and spectacular results (especially on the Border!), will be moving to be Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas, our new Security Initiative in the Western Hemisphere we are announcing on Saturday in Doral, Florida. I thank Kristi for her service at “Homeland.”
Serving 10 years in the United States House of Representatives, and 3 in the Senate, Markwayne has done a tremendous job representing the wonderful People of Oklahoma, where I won all 77 out of 77 Counties — in 2016, 2020, and 2024! A MAGA Warrior, and former undefeated professional MMA fighter, Markwayne truly gets along well with people, and knows the Wisdom and Courage required to Advance our America First Agenda. As the only Native American in the Senate, Markwayne is a fantastic advocate for our incredible Tribal Communities. Markwayne will work tirelessly to Keep our Border Secure, Stop Migrant Crime, Murderers, and other Criminals from illegally entering our Country, End the Scourge of Illegal Drugs and, MAKE AMERICA SAFE AGAIN. Markwayne will make a spectacular Secretary of Homeland Security. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Mullin will do a fine job, but it's an opportunity lost to get Paxton out of the runoff.
Editor's note: Join our VIP Membership program! Choose VIP to support Hot Air and access our premium content, VIP Gold to extend your access to all Townhall Media platforms and participate in this show, or VIP Platinum to get access to even more content and discounts on merchandise. Use the promo code FIGHT to join or to upgrade your existing membership level today, and get 60% off!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member