Looks like pollsters missed another clear winner.
Both pollsters and analysts predicted that Argentinians had grown tired of "chainsaw" reforms. The austerity policies imposed by Javier Milei had generated some pushback, and many expected the national elections to check Milei. The government needed a backup from the Trump administration earlier in the month in the form of currency support and investment pledges, but Donald Trump warned that these would depend on Argentinians staying on the path of fiscal discipline.
Instead of a rebuke, Milei won a resounding mandate. He doubled his party's representation in the Argentinian legislature, all but guaranteeing the further adoption of his reforms:
President Javier Milei scored a decisive political win Sunday, strengthening his position in Argentina’s Congress and securing a lifeline for his audacious free-market revolution backed by President Trump.
With more than 99% of votes counted, Milei’s Freedom Advances party won almost 41% of the national vote, more than doubling its representation in Congress. That means his party and allies secured at least one-third of the seats in both chambers—the critical threshold that allows Milei to preserve his veto power and defend his sweeping decrees.
The result, stronger than most polls had predicted, gives Milei fresh political momentum after months of unrest over deep spending cuts and a grinding recession last year. It also shores up his standing with Washington and the International Monetary Fund, which have tied future financial support to the survival of his austerity experiment.
The intervention from Trump came at the right time, apparently. However, there are good reasons to support Milei other than just out of solidarity for conservo-populist policies. The New York Times notes that Milei's resounding victory will not be well received in Beijing:
Mr. Milei is an enthusiastic supporter of Mr. Trump and the MAGA movement, and his fortunes are seen by the Trump administration as a way to bolster American influence in South America and counter China’s push into the region.
“It was quite a resounding victory for common sense and pro-U.S. leadership, which Milei very much embodies,” said Andrés Martínez-Fernández, a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation focusing on Latin America. It also showed that “there are also very clear benefits to countries that try to ally with the U.S. very proactively,” he said.
Tehran probably won't like it much, either. Both China and Iran had made significant inroads in South American over the last few decades, creating chaos and generating security risks for the US. The Trump administration's new "Donroe Doctrine" is addressing that in muscular terms, with a full Western Hemisphere press involving military, diplomatic, and commercial pressures to bolster Amercian strength in the region. Trump's intervention in Argentina's fiscal woes delivers more stability to the push to get China and Iran out of the region.
The BBC sounds ... miffed:
Before this election, doubts had grown about Milei's political future due to some voters tiring of his austerity programme, as well as a series of corruption scandals that had rocked his party.
This election turnout was 67.9%, the lowest in a national election in decades, representing widespread apathy with politicians of all stripes.
Some voters backed him reluctantly.
Ahem. Is there a more meaningless phrase in a multiparty democracy than "some voters backed him reluctantly"? No s***, Sherlock. News flash: "Some" voters backed Trump reluctantly. "Some" voters backed Barack Obama reluctantly. A lot of voters backed Joe Biden reluctantly, especially in the 2024 primaries when Democrats didn't allow those voters a choice.
The markets seem pleased this morning, with futures up significantly across the board before trading began. That may be more due to rumors that the US and China will finally hammer out a trade deal, which began with a positive readout from Beijing from this round of trade talks. Milei will have a much stronger position in Argentina now, with the ability to put his full program in place and demonstrate whether chainsaw fiscal policies can rescue bloated Western bureaucracies from long-term fiscal catastrophe. Maybe that's what has the Beeb depressed.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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