In yesterday's podcast, I asked John Ondrasik whether Donald Trump's peace deal in the Middle East might move the needle in Ukraine. John has done an extraordinary amount of work supporting Ukrainian humanitarian efforts, and has good contacts for information about the conflict. John answered:
It was interesting that Russia actually signed off on this deal. Nobody talks about it. But the fact that Russia even was consulted or had a voice in this Middle Eastern peace deal, I thought was fascinating. And I think that's Rubio working to find some kind of thread there.
I think it's very positive for Ukraine. And for a simple reason, it gives Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and America more stature, more leverage.
John's observation proved prophetic -- at least according to Donald Trump. He and Vladimir Putin held a lengthy phone call today, with Trump explicitly talking about it as an overture for peace. He posted his own read-out of the talk on Truth Social, laying out what Trump declares a process to end the war (paragraph breaks mine):
I have just concluded my telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, and it was a very productive one. President Putin congratulated me and the United States on the Great Accomplishment of Peace in the Middle East, something that, he said, has been dreamed of for centuries. I actually believe that the Success in the Middle East will help in our negotiation in attaining an end to the War with Russia/Ukraine.
President Putin thanked the First Lady, Melania, for her involvement with children. He was very appreciative, and said that this will continue. We also spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the United States when the War with Ukraine is over.
At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors, next week. The United States’ initial meetings will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with various other people, to be designated. A meeting location is to be determined. President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end. President Zelenskyy and I will be meeting tomorrow, in the Oval Office, where we will discuss my conversation with President Putin, and much more. I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation.
To quote Joe Biden's last cogent statement, this is a big effing deal. Assuming that Putin's readout also acknowledges a commitment to a summit, that means Putin has at least tacitly committed to making some sort of change. There is no point to a summit unless an agreement of some sort can come from it.
Perhaps Putin thinks he can manipulate Trump into more concessions by meeting face-to-face. However, this time Trump has recognized the wisdom of the traditional summit process. Rather than go in without prep, Trump will have Marco Rubio hammer out the agreement before either Trump or Putin get to Hungary, which will minimize the potential manipulation at the final stage.
The real question is, as always, whether Putin's had enough of war. He's burned through men, materiel, and money for almost four years and still hasn't gained much at all over what he already held since 2014. Until now, Putin has attempted his "escalate to de-escalate" strategy repeatedly, lately to the point of intrusions into NATO territory, in an attempt to intimidate the Europeans into cutting Ukraine loose. It hasn't worked; Poland in particular has begun mobilization on the border of Belarus in preparation for Russian provocations, setting up a dangerously explosive situation.
On top of that, Trump has shown his mettle when it comes to staring down threats. He forced Hamas into a capitulation by refusing to play along with the Hamas Hokey Pokey and standing firm on Iran. The strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan must have forced Putin to rethink his escalation strategy at least a little bit. Trump's threat to arm Ukraine with long-range Tomahawks would put Moscow easily on Zelensky's target map, and that escalation came courtesy of Putin's air incursions into NATO airspace as well as his renewed missile attacks on the entirety of Ukraine. Plus, Trump claimed yesterday to have peeled off a good portion of Putin's revenue with a deal to end India's oil purchases from Russia, and that had to at least force Putin to wonder how much longer his regime would last if Trump managed to succeed with Modi.
Speaking of Hamas, Trump upped the ante in Gaza as well today:
Putin is paying attention, clearly. That doesn't mean he or his regime will roll over for Trump, but Rubio's not going to be inclined to offer much in the way of face-saving concessions either. No one will likely be thrilled with the terms of peace in Ukraine, but we may finally see some light at the end of that tunnel now as well.
Editor's Note: Donald Trump is America's Peace Time President. Support and follow our latest reporting on the president's historic trip to the Middle East.
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