Nobel Peace Prize, anyone? If this actually holds up, it'd be tough to argue against it.
Not long after Ali Khamenei insisted that the Iranians would never surrender under fire, it certainly looks like they just did:
CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!
DONALD J. TRUMP,
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
So far, we haven't seen anything from either country officially adopting the ceasefire, so keep that in mind.
Let's assume Trump got this agreement from both parties. This came about a few hours after Iran put on a staged light show over Qatar, which clearly intended to give Khamenei a face-saving exit from an existential threat from Trump and the US military. It came less than two days after the US destroyed at least part of Iran's nuclear-weapons development program. And it came an hour after Khamenei tweeted boldly about his courage from the safety of the bunker he apparently hasn't left in twelve days:
Says the frightened little man hiding in his bunker while asking everyone else to martyr themselves.
— Ed Morrissey (@EdMorrissey) June 23, 2025
cc:@yashar https://t.co/i90JZJDM6m
This is what is known as peace through strength. The Israelis understand that, and we used to know it as well. We have relearned it in this administration, and now Iran has little choice but to either concede or watch its regime collapse. And it's still not clear that a regime collapse won't happen anyway.
VP J.D. Vance was in the middle of an interview with Bret Baier when Trump made the announcement. Vance made the point that Trump's decisive action forced the mullahs to retreat, and now the world looks much different than it did two weeks ago, or two years ago:
.@VP reacts to the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement announced by President Trump: "The President without ... having a single American casualty obliterated the Iranian nuclear program. We are now in a place where we weren't a week ago." pic.twitter.com/a5G88FfKuE
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 23, 2025
Vance raises an interesting point. If Iran could still build a nuclear weapon, they would have raced to do it over the last 12 days. The initial attacks of the IDF seem to have prevented it, likely because of their attacks on Isfahan and Natanz, as well as the elimination of their nuclear scientists. The strike on Fordow must have put a stake through the heart of the project, though, because it changed the orientation of the Iranian regime practically overnight. This fast agreement after their silly pas de deux over Qatar today speaks volumes on this point. They no longer have anything to protect -- except their own hides.
That's why Abbas Araghchi went to Moscow today, after trying to get France and Europeans to intercede with the US. That was the last gasp of the mullahs, an attempt to get the Russians to face off against Trump and threaten World War III. Putin isn't interested in those stakes, and neither is China. The Iranians found out the hard way that they were all alone, and the only man who could stop the bombing was Trump.
Assuming Trump did get the ceasefire, that is. So far the Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel are reporting on Trump's announcement, but don't have any reports on confirmation from Benjamin Netanyahu's government. The Iranians are quiet too, although a couple of their mouthpieces on social media are calling this "fake news." That's a measure of how humiliating it will be to have to accept terms from the US to keep Tehran from getting pounded by the Israelis for another night. And despite all of the best propaganda efforts by the regime, everyone will understand exactly who won this war, and what it means for the claims to divine ordination for the Iranian theocracy.
Update: We have conflicting accounts on the status of an agreement. CNN says the Iranians haven't even seen a proposal:
JUST IN 🔴
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 23, 2025
CNN, quoting an Iranian official, reports: “Tehran has received no ceasefire proposals. Claims by Israel and the U.S. are a ‘trick’ meant to justify continued aggression. Right now, the enemy is actively attacking Iran.”
A UK-based Arabic news service claims to have confirmation of the agreement, however:
UPDATE: Iranian sources confirm that ceasefire with Israel has been agreed. According to one source, the truce will go into effect at 3.30am Jerusalem time.https://t.co/9GLLK0el0D
— Mohammad Ali Shabani (@mashabani) June 23, 2025
Apparently, the Iranians were warned that their economic infrastructure would be targeted next if they didn't throw in the towel:
Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, informed Iranian sources have confirmed to Amwaj.media. The truce is expected to go into effect at 3.30 am Jerusalem time on June 23 for Iran, followed by Israel six hours later. After the 24-hour mark, the ceasefire will be followed by a "conclusion" to the conflict that erupted on June 13, when Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran—on the eve of a sixth round of nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington. ...
As Amwaj.media exclusively reported on June 22, Iran received prior notice of the US bombings along with a private communication from the Trump administration that it does not seek a broader conflict. That dynamic suggested that Trump seeks a repeat of the events of Jan. 2020, when Iran fired ballistic missiles at evacuated American bases in Iraq in retaliation for the US assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.
At the time, Trump opted to absorb the largely symbolic Iranian strike, acknowledging that Tehran needed to save face. However, under current conditions, with the Islamic Republic perceived to be on the backfoot in the face of setbacks in the region—while under an ongoing Israeli attack which has left top military commanders and nuclear scientists dead—the US president’s tolerance for an Iranian response may be lower.
Israeli media on June 22 suggested that Tel Aviv may be ready for a ceasefire if Tehran stops firing missiles, but that Israel and the US could jointly attack economic and energy infrastructure in Iran with the aim of collapsing the Iranian state if the Islamic Republic does not take the offer.
"Tel Aviv" is used here because Arabic media refuses to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Stay tuned for more developments.
Update: The Israeli cabinet is meeting now, presumably to discuss this agreement. The IDF just issued a new evacuation order for another part of Tehran as the Israelis target regime assets in the final hours before the ceasefire is reported to take initial effect. That's how these agreements work; they usually have a start time to allow for the winding down of operations already under way, although all sides generally try to run up the score during that period, too. Still no solid confirmation on the agreement from the warring parties, but no official denials either.
Update: Reuters now reports that Iranian regime officials have confirmed the ceasefire agreement:
BREAKING
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) June 23, 2025
A senior Islamic Republic of Iran official has confirmed to Reuters that the Islamic Republic has agreed to a ceasefire proposal.
NBC's Matt Bradley points out that the terms seem designed to prevent Iran from declaring victory:
Unclear about these details.
— Matt Bradley (@MattMcBradley) June 23, 2025
It looks like Israel will have a twelve hour period after Iran ceases firing before it too has to stop striking Iran.
Then both sides keep their guns silent for 12 hours before the war officially ends.
That sounds like quite a lopsided deal. pic.twitter.com/QiZ8NUcwC1
They didn't have a choice.
Update: According to Reuters, the Qataris helped broker the agreement after Trump got Israel to agree in principle to the terms he suggested. The Times of Israel has the report, which also contains the aforementioned confirmation:
Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran’s agreement to the US proposal for a ceasefire during a call with Iranian officials, an official briefed on the negotiations tells Reuters.
The call took place after Iran’s strikes on a US air base in Qatar on Monday, the official says.
The phone call came after US President Donald Trump told Qatar’s emir that Israel had agreed to the ceasefire and asked for Doha’s help persuading Tehran to also agree, the official says.
So they were cutting a deal to get out of the war while Khamenei was tweeting about his courage while hiding in his bunker. That's just ... delicious.
Update: Reportedly, Netanyahu has now confirmed the deal too:
Netanyahu: “We have a ceasefire”
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 23, 2025
Still nothing in Israeli media, but I'm updating constantly. For what it's worth, though, the Jerusalem Post reported this morning that the Israelis would have wrapped up the war pretty soon anyway:
Despite seemingly intensifying attacks by Israel on Iran and the dramatic US bombing of three nuclear sites, defense sources told The Jerusalem Post on Monday night that Jerusalem intends to wrap up the war against Tehran "in the coming days." ...
In recent days, Israel shifted to targeting sources of the regime's internal; power, relating to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia.
However, a few more days of attacks would likely be insufficient, on its own, to bring down the regime, though some analysts think it may already have been enough to empower Iranian opposition officials to dethrone Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
That may be why we're seeing the intensity of the strikes in Tehran and other parts of Iran in these last few hours. The Israelis want to weaken the regime as much as possible before the end.
Update: Israeli media is reporting that Iran gave guarantees that they will not restart their nuclear programs:
1.A ceasefire is in place.
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 24, 2025
2.Trump announced it earlier than planned.
3.Israel received guarantees that Iran will not resume its nuclear weapons program.
Via @Tamir114 channel 14
That's an even bigger capitulation than I imagined ... if they adhere to that agreement. We'll see.
Update: Of all the lame spins, Abbas Araghchi chose the lamest:
Seems Iranian forces have acknowledged the ceasefire: pic.twitter.com/abQXygyg2x
— Bree A Dail (@breeadail) June 24, 2025
Uh ... we never agreed to nothin' ... but since the Israelis have stopped, we're gonna stop and not because anyone MADE us stop. For reals, dudes.
Sure, Jan.
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