Trump has used his current Middle East tour to signal a real course change, Matthew Petti writes at Reason. Trump wants to stop forcing change at gunpoint and start enabling it through American economic power, and that may not sit well with some of our friends and allies:

President Donald Trump has a vision of a "great transformation" in the Middle East. But it's not the transformation that American leaders have talked about bringing at gunpoint. At his Tuesday speech at a U.S.-Saudi investment summit in Riyadh, the president denounced the failures of "interventionists" and promised a future "where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence."

Those words came with action. In his speech, Trump promised to lift all U.S. sanctions on Syria, and the day after, he shook hands with new Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who had a $10 million bounty on his head from the U.S. government just six months ago. In the weeks leading up to the summit, Trump ended the U.S. war in Yemen and negotiated the release of the last American in Hamas captivity. It remains to be seen whether he can follow through.

Riyadh was only the first stop in Trump's planned four-day tour of the Persian Gulf. He also plans to stop in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. In his speech, Trump praised the oil-rich Arab monarchies of the Gulf—and used their success to attack the architects of past U.S. policy. 

 "The gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called nation builders, neocons, or liberal nonprofits like those who spent trillions and trillions of dollars failing to develop Kabul, Baghdad, and so many other cities," Trump said. "Instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought by the people of the region themselves, the people that are right here, the people that have lived here all their lives, developing your own sovereign countries, pursuing your own unique visions, and charting your own destinies in your own way."

The most meaningful of these approaches may be to Iran, but the most eye-popping came in yesterday's meeting with new Syrian president al-Sharaa. This looks more like realpolitik rather than a retreat into isolationism, especially with Trump's exhortation for Sharaa to ally with Israel in the Abraham Accords. Sharaa won his position on the battlefield as the leader of a mainly jihadist army, albeit with significant help from US-backed Kurd forces. Trump had a choice: either shun Sharaa and push him away, or at least attempt to engage and see whether he can be convinced to integrate into a peaceful global order. 

On Iran, Trump is playing with both carrots and sticks. The momentary rapprochment with Sharaa is a demonstration of Trump's willingness to let bygones be bygones. The recent application of sanctions and threat of "maximum pressure" policies are the sticks, a reminder that American economic power can be used to punish those who insist on remaining enemies. But a less-noticed move this week appears to offer an opportunity to dial down the threat of military action:

The US military is replacing its B-2 bombers with another type of bomber at a base in the Indo-Pacific that was seen as being in an ideal location to operate in the Middle East, US officials told Reuters on Monday, as the American bombing campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebel group came to an end with a ceasefire reached earlier this month.

The Pentagon deployed as many as six B-2 bombers in March to a US-British military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, making use of the aircraft during the month-long US bombing campaign in Yemen and as a deterrence against Iran during a period of tensions as the two countries began talks over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Experts say that this had put the B-2s, which have stealth technology and are equipped to carry the heaviest US bombs and nuclear weapons, in a position to operate in the Middle East.

Duane covered this when Trump ordered the B-2 deployment to Diego Garcia in March. Trump clearly wanted to send a signal to Iran that he would use military force if Iran didn't start talking about its nuclear-weapons programs. And it worked; a couple of weeks later, 'supreme leader' Ali Khamenei allowed the government to open talks with the US about its nuclear programs, which they had previously refused. Now that the two sides have completed four rounds of talks, Trump has apparently decided to replace the B-2s with B-52s as some sort of good-faith gesture to encourage more compliance.

Is that a move away from the "Neocon" era? That's questionable; Trump flexed American military muscle and at least hinted at imminent strikes on Iran to get them to the table. He's not setting aside our warfighting power to dictate outcomes, but Trump seems reluctant to push that option unless truly necessary. 

However, all of this dealmaking has Israel nervous. While Trump still pushes to expand the Abraham Accords and Israel's sphere of influence, it has become increasingly clear that he is charting his own course to do so. And the Israelis have noticed:

He dramatically deepened US-Saudi relations, with Israel out of the loop — telling Saudi leaders on Tuesday that while it is his dream for them to join the Abraham Accords with Israel, “you’ll do it in your own time.” Left unspoken was his recognition that Saudi Arabia will not normalize ties with an Israeli government, under Netanyahu, that refuses to set out even a theoretical pathway to Palestinian statehood.

He signed an unprecedentedly large arms deal with Riyadh, worth some $142 billion, doubtless to Jerusalem’s dismay (especially if Israel’s air supremacy is undermined). And he is reportedly discussing a deal regarding the Saudis’ desire for a civil nuclear program, which opposition leader Yair Lapid warned on Wednesday would trigger a Middle East nuclear race.

He is determined to seal a deal with Iran that, given the US zig-zagging on whether this will require the destruction of all of the regime’s nuclear facilities, has Jerusalem in panic mode.

Over objections from Jerusalem, he’s lifted all sanctions on a Syrian leadership that Israel understandably regards as a terrorist regime unless or until proven otherwise, and asked President Ahmed al-Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords.

Trump wants to create a new Middle East of interlocking economic interests that will overcome ideological and theological divides. Is that even possible? It's not the first time that a world power has attempted it; the British and French tried it in the decades after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Granted, they used a more overtly imperial approach to the task, but the economic interests didn't overcome the sectarian and ideological conflicts. In fact, the economic interests eventually were put into service of the conflicting ideologies and theological mandates, largely resulting in oppressive regimes funded by trade with the West and often resulting in hostility toward the West.

Politically speaking, the Neocon era was all but dead in the US anyway. Perhaps a more commercial approach has room to work now. Looking around the region, though, the prospects seem thin -- and the one state fully oriented toward Western values has good reason to worry about what may come next.