BREAKING: Habemus Papam! White Smoke At Vatican; UPDATE: AMERICAN POPE; Update: REPUBLICAN??

AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino

This is no malfunction in the Sistine Chapel furnace. That happened in the earlier vote, when a brief puff of white smoke emanated from the morning ballot at the conclave. The Vatican has confirmed that the cardinal electors have chosen a new pontiff to lead the Catholic Church:

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Crowds in St. Peter’s Square erupted in cheers as bells pealed from the towering basilica, confirming that the 133 cardinal electors who have been sequestered inside since Wednesday had reached a two-thirds majority decision on who will succeed Pope Francis.

The new pope’s identity will be revealed shortly by Dominique Mamberti, the senior cardinal deacon, who convention says will appear on the St. Peter’s balcony that overlooks the square and announce, “Habemus Papam” — “We have a pope.”

No word yet on the identity or regnant name of the new pope. The new pontiff will first spend some time reflecting on his task, then get outfitted for his first public audience shortly. Stand by for updates.

Update: This turned out to be a relatively short conclave. It's only slightly shorter than the 2013 and 2005 conclaves, though. This process works very well to generate the necessary pre-conclave comity and awareness, and modern travel and communications allow the cardinalate to remain in contact with each other. The timing does not surprise me. 

Update: I updated the front page image to today's smoke signal. The first image was from the 2013 conclave, which was the only such image in the library at first. 

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Update: I'm trying to recall how long it took to find out who got elected in 2013. As best as I can recall, it took less than an hour, perhaps as short as 30 minutes. I had time to run out to the piazza from the media annex, take some video, and upload it here before seeing Pope Francis at the balcony. We should find out shortly.  

Update: Salena Zito nails it:

And celebration, too. 

Update: Perhaps the new pontiff wants more time to contemplate the task at hand:

Update: The AP reports that it took 80 minutes for Francis to appear, which is longer than I recall. I'm not disputing it, it just seems shorter in my memory. But I believe his identity had been announced well before that. 

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UPDATE:  Just as I was telling Andrew Wilkow and his audience that I'd be surprised to see an American pope, we have Leo XIV, formerly Cardrinal Robert Prevost from Chicago:

If nothing else, this shows the folly of all the papabili media coverage. Both Prevost and the idea of an American pope came out of nowhere in the media analysis. The AP did do a profile of Prevost this week:

Prevost was also twice elected prior general, or top leader, of the Augustinian religious order, the 13th century order founded by St. Augustine. Francis clearly had an eye on him for years, moving him from the Augustinian leadership back to Peru in 2014 to serve as the administrator and later archbishop of Chiclayo.

He remained in that position, acquiring Peruvian citizenship in 2015, until Francis brought him to Rome in 2023 to assume the presidency of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. In that job he would have kept in regular contact with the Catholic hierarchy in the part of the world that counts still counts the most Catholics.

Ever since he arrived in Rome, Prevost has kept a low public profile, but he is well known to the men who count.

Significantly, he presided over one of the most revolutionary reforms Francis made, when he added three women to the voting bloc that decides which bishop nominations to forward to the pope. In early 2025, Francis again showed his esteem by appointing Prevost to the most senior rank of cardinals, suggesting he would at least be Francis’ choice in an any future conclave.

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So perhaps the conclave opted more for continuity than for course correction. The adoption of Leo XIV as the regnant name suggests that Prevost may want a signal to a more traditional pontificate, though. 

Update: Another site suggests that Prevost may be only a step back from Francis on the more controversial initiatives of his pontificate:

On key topics, Cardinal Prevost says little but some of his positions are known. He is reportedly very close to Francis’ vision regarding the environment, outreach to the poor and migrants, and meeting people where they are. He said last year “the bishop is not supposed to be a little prince sitting in his kingdom.”

He supported Pope Francis’ change in pastoral practice to allow divorced and civilly remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion. Prevost appears somewhat less favorable to currying favor with the LGBTQ lobby than Francis, but he showed mild support for Fiducia Supplicans.1

Get ready for a tussle over those points in the near future. Some of the cardinals will want to test Pope Leo XIV's sensibilities on those soon. 

Update: Link fixed.

Update: Is Pope Leo XIV ... Republican?

Update: Don't read too much into this ...

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