Senate Democrats did their level best to deny Russ Vought a confirmation as the chief of the Office of Management and Budget. And now they may be doing their level best to hand Vought the keys to the entire executive branch just a few short weeks later.

How so? Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer pledged last night to block the House's continuing resolution, claiming to be willing to risk a shutdown. Well, guess who's in charge of how money flows when funding authorizations run out? 

Okay, okay, it's technically the president. But guess who makes those decisions on his behalf?

A government shutdown will put Russ Vought, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, in charge. That is as close as America will ever come to having Ron Swanson in charge, and it is beautiful.

— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) March 13, 2025

This isn't exactly a secret. The Congressional Research Service has routinely informed Congress of this reality, with their latest update having been published in September:

How do executive agencies prepare for a shutdown?

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) provides instructions to executive branch agencies on how to prepare for and operate during a shutdown in the annually revised Circular No. A-11.⁴ The circular also establishes two "policies" regarding the absence of appropriations:

• 1. a prohibition on incurring obligations unless the obligations are otherwise authorized by law; and
• 2. permission for agency heads, in consultation with their general counsels, to decide what agency activities are excepted or otherwise legally authorized to continue during a lapse in appropriations.

The circular also directs agency heads to develop and maintain shutdown plans. These plans are sometimes called "contingency plans."⁵

OMB may also provide more detailed guidance to agencies in specific situations. These formalized communications typically occur through bulletins or memoranda. The documents may be issued to agencies in at least two ways:

• 1. through means that are internal to the executive branch and are generally not readily visible elsewhere (e.g., posting on an OMB-administered website that cannot be readily accessed outside the executive branch),⁶ and
• 2. through publicly visible means (e.g., posting a memorandum on OMB's public website).⁷

Glenn Reynolds offers his congratulations to Vought for all of the fun he's about to have in saving money:

As I write this, Democrats in the Senate are also planning to block the continuing resolution and trigger a government shutdown. This also seems unwise. First, shutting down the government is kind of consistent with Trump’s goals. Second, the “shutdown” that this sort of thing produces is pretty mild: We’ve been through several and nobody noticed, except for a few dumb attention-getting stunts like closing national parks or monuments. Third, a shutdown will give OMB head Russell Vought, a Democrat bête noire, extra power to close things and reallocate funds. It’s easy to lay people off and establish that they’re not essential, when they’re not working anyway because the government is shut down and they’re “nonessential employees.”

In other words: Don't threaten me with a good time.

This prompts the question: Will Shutdown Schumer really give Vought this kind of carte blanche? Color me skeptical. It's easy enough to get up and talk tough on S-Day Minus 3, just to jolly along the donor class and get the lay of the land. But it's not a cost-free move if Congress really does allow funding authorizations to lapse in an administration already looking to dismantle wide swaths of bureaucracies on which Democrats rely as enforcers for progressive ambitions. 

Suppose Schumer lets a shutdown start on Friday night and holds the Senate for the weekend to cave on Sunday night, as a protest stunt. Vought will likely work all weekend to furlough bureaucratic personnel across the executive branch, especially in regulatory agencies. He'd then allocate their funds to Trump's priorities -- like ICE and Border Patrol, for instance. 

Even Punchbowl seems a little skeptical:

Now remember: OMB has massive leeway in a government shutdown. They decide when exactly a shutdown begins. The full effects wouldn’t be felt until Monday at the earliest.

Yet “lapses in appropriations” can cause lots of pain. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers could be furloughed. White House sources tell us that the Trump administration would make it very painful for Democrats as they decide what agencies and services remain open. Democrats are very aware of this, too.

At some point, Congress would have to reopen the government. Maybe a shutdown would force Republicans to the table. Or alternatively, Democrats may simply have to cave at some point. Some Democrats believe their options to get out of a shutdown would be worse than the House-passed CR.

Trump and Musk could use the shutdown as a pretext for laying off even more federal workers, which is exactly what Democrats are trying to head off.

They figure that Schumer will demand a vote on a four-week CR in exchange for a final floor vote as a face-saving measure. And we're starting to see hints of this from other Senate Dems like Richard Blumenthal:

Dem CT Sen Blumenthal: We need to avoid a shutdown. But the six month CR is a partisan hot mess at this point, and we're united in favor of a 30 day extension to April 11th without the massive ceding of authority that creates a slight fine for President Trump to administer on his…

— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) March 13, 2025

Blumenthal never says that he'd block a floor vote on the current House CR. A vote on the 30-day CR would likely satisfy him, even though it would fail. Senate Republicans are united on the House CR except for Rand Paul, but his objection is that the House CR doesn't cut enough. He's not going to vote for a 30-day extension of the status quo either. 

John Thune can test this by allowing an immediate vote on the 30-day CR with the agreement that the House CR can get a final floor vote as well. If Schumer refuses to take Thune up on that agreement, then all hail Russ Vought as the new Bureaucracy Czar. For now, though, bet on Schumer's defiance being nothing more than a PR stunt from a caucus leader who has a long track record of abysmal strategy and self-defeating tactics. 

Update: John Thune ripped Schumer as a budget dilettante this morning in response. 

Maybe, just maybe, he should have funded the government when he was in charge..The Democrat leader refused to consider appropriation bills last year..It is absolutely rich for him to be coming down to the floor now to call for a short term CR.

Ya think?