Phase 1 of the Israel-Hamas cease fire is complete. Phase 2 appears dead in the water, as practically anyone and everyone had predicted.

Hamas still holds a handful of living hostages, including two seen being exploited at an earlier Hamas rally during a Phase 1 exchange for prisoners. They want to leverage the few remaining hostages still living to force Israel to fully withdraw from Gaza and let Hamas rebuild. A key step to the second phase involved a withdrawal from Hamas' main supply line at the Egyptian border, but Israel has declared today that it has no intention of allowing Hamas to resupply:

Israel will not withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor -- the border separating Egypt and Gaza -- as stipulated by the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, an Israeli official confirmed to ABC News.

“We will not allow Hamas murderers to once again roam our borders with pickup trucks and guns, and we will not allow them to rebuild strength from smuggling,” an Israeli official said in a statement.

Releasing the Philadelphi Corridor while Hamas controls Gaza guarantees another war. It also guarantees a continuing shower of rockets and missiles from Gaza even apart from an all-out war, and eventually would lead to another October 7, perhaps on an even greater scale than the last one. Egypt has proven inept at closing that border to arms trafficking, if they even really bothered to try at all. Allowing that flow to restart with Hamas still controlling Gaza is akin to signing a death warrant for its citizens in southern Israel, no matter how good the Iron Dome operates or how prepared the IDF could be.

After the completion of Phase 1 last night with the return of four dead hostages, Defense Minister Israel Katz made it sound as though the war cabinet had achieved enough through negotiation. The priority now is Israel's long-term security:

“We have returned 25 hostages alive, including female soldiers. This was not the case in earlier negotiations, where the numbers discussed were 10 or 12. We also brought back eight deceased people. We aim to bring them all back,” he says at a conference of regional council heads.

He asserts that “the most effective way to ensure this is for Hamas to know that the IDF is ready to return to war. That is the truth.” Katz says Israel did not agree to a ceasefire in Gaza because of a shortage of ammunition or soldier fatigue. We agreed to a ceasefire for one reason only — to bring back the hostages, both alive and deceased. That is our top priority, our moral obligation, and our mutual responsibility, and we will continue to act accordingly.”

But he stresses that Hamas “will not remain in control of Gaza, neither civilly nor militarily. This will not happen because it cannot happen.”

This brings us back to the conundrum that has existed ever since October 7, and more to the point, ever since Hamas seized power in Gaza in 2006-7. Hamas has no other mission than the utter destruction of Israel and the annihilation of Jews in the region. Hamas has made that perfectly clear, both before and after October 7. In the wake of that grotesque and vile barbarism, Hamas officials declared that they would repeat it as often as it takes until Israel is destroyed. 

On the other hand, Israel has no intention of allowing Hamas to destroy it. They have spent nearly 20 years giving the Gazans every opportunity to embrace peaceful coexistence; the West has showered billions upon billions in aid to convince them to do so. Gazans are clearly not interested in peaceful coexistence. Nineteen years after the end of occupation in Gaza, the Gazans are just as determined to destroy Israel, and Israel obviously does not intend to allow that. 

All of the cease-fires since 2006 have not changed this basic calculus: Hamas and Gazans will not stop pursuing war. Why would Israel return to a status quo ante that allows them to wage that war more effectively, especially while Hamas remains in control and has the popular support of Gazans for their genocidal war aims? 

Answer: They won't, and that was pretty obvious all along. That's why Phase 1 of this cease-fire made some sense, but not phases 2 or 3. And after Hamas played games with the hostages by dragging them in front of rallies and then substituting Shiri Bibas' body for further humiliation, further negotiations with Hamas seem very pointless indeed. 

However, Benjamin Netanyahu is giving talks the ol' college try. While refusing to move to Phase 2 on the ground, he sent negotiators to discuss extending Phase 1 hostages-for-prisoners exchanges:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the hostage-ceasefire deal delegation to leave for Cairo to engage in talks regarding the continuation of the ceasefire on Thursday.

The delegation will be led by Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Persons, Brig.-Gen. (Res.) Gal Hirsch, as well as "M," an anonymous officer from the Shin Bet. M is the former deputy of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, who is reportedly no longer part of the hostage deal negotiating team.

In a Thursday meeting with Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský in Jerusalem, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said, "Our delegation will depart for Cairo to assess whether there is common ground for extending the framework in exchange for the return of more hostages." 

Israeli officials told the Jerusalem Post that Israel wants and is willing to continue phase one of the deal. This would mean that three hostages would continue to be released each week in return for humanitarian aid and the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.

This brings us to other part of the conundrum. Hamas can't afford to trade away all of the hostages without a commitment for an IDF withdrawal and an end to hostilities. It's the only leverage they have left, and the only way to keep their credibility among the battered Gazans. Right now, they still control the aid coming into Gaza, which helps Hamas maintain their political control, but a restart of hostilities will likely end that revenue and control scheme. Donald Trump will not pressure Israel to keep feeding Hamas like Joe Biden did, and Hamas has to know that. 

So we have an unresolvable conflict. Hamas won't give up the hostages without Israel allowing them to rebuild, and Israel can't afford to allow them to rebuild even considering the remaining hostages. Unless Hamas decides to exit Gaza or Israel decides to let itself be destroyed, there is no way to peacefully resolve that standoff. This is an all-out war of annilation for Hamas and the Gazans, and an all-out war of survival for Israel. All that's happening now is nibbling at the edges of a war that will happen no matter what.

Israel has the advantage in that war, now more than ever. If they want to end this existential threat, there's no better time than the present -- because it will get a lot costlier if they kick the can down the road again after this.