Crisis averted? Perhaps for Volodymyr Zelensky, who could end up the big winner in this mineral-rights pact with Donald Trump. Both sides agreed to the terms, allowing the US to get compensated for $100 billion or more in aid to Ukraine in its three-year war against Russia.

Not that Trump won't notch a victory with this too, but for Zelensky, the stakes are existential:

Ukraine has agreed to a mineral-rights deal with the U.S. that could be finalized as soon as Friday at a White House meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

People close to the negotiations said the text had now been agreed, and the U.S. had dropped its previous demand for the right to $500 billion in potential revenue from the development of Ukraine’s mineral resources.

The signing ceremony would be a personal victory for Zelensky, who has been pushing for a face-to-face meeting with Trump but has instead had to watch as the U.S. opened discussions with Moscow about how to end the war—excluding Ukraine. The Ukrainian president had refused to sign the mineral-rights deal presented by a lower-level official, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. 

Despite the rhetoric about paying back the aid, though, the agreement sets up a very different plan. Ukraine has essentially agreed to pool 50% of all mineral-asset development into a Reconstruction Investment Fund, which will be "reinvested at least annually in Ukraine to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine." If that's not clear enough, Section 5 explicitly states that the assets will fund projects in Ukraine rather than pay back the US:

The Fund's investment process will be designed so as to invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase the development, processing and monetization of all public and private Ukrainian assets including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. The Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine intend that the investment process will lead to opportunities for distribution of additional funds and greater reinvestment, to ensure the sufficient supply of capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine as set out in the Fund Agreement.

In other words, far from being an American theft of Ukraine's resources, the plan will be to develop their resources to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine. That's a win for the West in that it will be less necessary to pay for rebuilding ourselves; right now, it looks as though a mini-Marshall Plan is necessary to undo all of the damage done in the war. The agreement also leaves openings for American industry to participate in developing and purchasing resources and doing the work in rebuilding efforts, which means the US will derive a significant share of secondary benefits from the Fund. 

We're not seizing the rare-earth minerals for repayment, in other words. The US will Ukraine develop them while reinvesting their profit for reconstruction -- while probably ensuring that corruption doesn't derail it.

The only way that works, though, is for the US to guarantee Ukraine sovereignty over the land it will have left after a peace deal is reached. Zelensky understands this, and so does Trump. Trump just doesn't want to go into talks with Putin defending that sovereignty without making sure the US has a valid and concrete interest in that outcome. Some will see this as crass, but that is how national interests are pursued in most of the world, and for most of history in all of the world. For Zelensky, that's potentially better security than he's had thus far from the West, which has been long on promises since the 1994 Budapest Memo and short on action in many ways.

So now Trump will have to make clear to Putin that any territorial concessions are final, or else. If this seems disappointing to those who wanted Trump to take a harder line with Ukraine, bear in mind that this isn't the only deal that peace will unlock for the US:

Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, is in talks with several sellers for a two-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) import contract into the country, CEO Maxim Timchenko said in an interview at IE Week in London, Bloomberg reports.  

The company expects to finalize and announce the deal within the next two months, with most potential partners based in the U.S.

DTEK is also exploring longer-term agreements of 10 to 20 years with suppliers, including those from the Middle East. Timchenko declined to disclose specific suppliers, as negotiations are still in the early stages.

"We want to build a medium-term and long-term business," he said, adding: "We want to see Ukraine be an offtaker with gas storage facilities."

This may not have been the outcome that Zelensky desired, but he can live with it as long as the US has an investment to protect in a free and independent Ukraine. Trump gets to end the war, assuming Putin has an interest in doing so, and a refusal will reset the conflict once again in Zelensky's favor. It's nearly a win-win, and survival is a win all its own in this case.