Remember Marc Fogel? Russia arrested him in 2021 over a marijuana charge, and Fogel got forgotten by the Biden administration while it made prisoner swaps for more media-friendly Americans. Last August, Fogel and his family expressed their frustration that Biden hadn't included him in those swaps, including one that released the "Merchant of Death" arms dealer Viktor Bout.

Today, however, Fogel finds himself on a plane back to the US, thanks to Donald Trump and his envoy Steven Witkoff, seemingly for no exchange at all except "goodwill," although that may yet change:

NEW: National Security Advisor Mike Waltz says Special Envoy Witkoff is leaving Russian airspace with Marc Fogel, an American detained by Russia:

"By tonight, Marc Fogel will be on American soil and reunited with his family and loved ones thanks to President Trump’s… pic.twitter.com/dTRW7DJtAU

— Mary Margaret Olohan (@MaryMargOlohan) February 11, 2025

Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, said the U.S. and Russia “negotiated an exchange” to ensure Fogel’s release. He did not say what the U.S. side of the bargain entailed. Previous negotiations have occasionally involved reciprocal releases of Russians by the U.S. or its allies.

Waltz described the development as “a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine.” Trump, a Republican, has promised to find a way to end the conflict.

What was exchanged? If this follows the pattern of earlier negotiations, Russia may have gotten back a national incarcerated elsewhere in the West. Usually, however, Russia makes those terms very public so as to benefit the Putin regime in domestic media. 

Trump has been demanding the release of Fogel since this past summer. In one particular coincidence, Trump met with Fogel's mother just before getting shot in the ear in Butler County, Pennsylvania. Malphine Fogel attended the rally as Trump's guest and watched as Trump went down and rose again:

Assuming that this didn't involve a Russian incarcerated here or elsewhere, what would the "exchange" have been? Right now, the White House is calling this a "goodwill" gesture, perhaps a sweetener for Trump's assistance in ending the war in Ukraine. However, that doesn't make a lot of sense, since Russia and Vladimir Putin have been the problem. Volodymyr Zelensky has offered talks, but Putin has kept to a hard line in his demands. Maybe Putin figures he needs to get Trump on his side, and that Fogel would be an easy gesture to make, but that's not really an "exchange." The implication might be that Trump offered Putin an up-front concession in negotiations.

Or perhaps Putin is getting the sense that Trump plans to get more hard-line in his efforts to protect Americans abroad. That might have had Putin looking for a way to offer a fig leaf, especially with Trump's recent threats to escalate matters with Hamas, but realistically speaking, Putin knows that this won't impact Russia ... directly. Trump has explicitly warned Russia's partner Iran on several occasions, however, and maybe that might have had Putin considering how to make the relationship smoother. 

I'd bet on Putin getting someone in return, however. He's too transactional to just cough up a prisoner for the feelz.

We'll update this as developments warrant. Stay tuned. 

Update: Is this a coincidence? Do we believe in coincidences?

#BREAKING Ukraine prepared to offer territory swap with Russia: Zelensky pic.twitter.com/mX5N3lOvdI

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 11, 2025

I for one do not believe in coincidences. If this is linked to the release of Fogel, then perhaps this was an icebreaker for Put to get Zelensky to make the first public concession. Although, any settled end of this war would necessarily have required territorial concessions by Kyiv. 

Update: Dan Hoffman doesn't believe in coincidences either. The former CIA analyst tells Fox that it's at least possible that this is part of a new peace initiative on Ukraine:

Part of the reason Putin started snapping up Americans is because of the war in Ukraine, to use for leverage. It's not impossible that Putin traded Fogel for a better bargaining position to end it, or for some sort of sanction relief in the meantime.