Thune: Hegseth Has the Votes

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Newly minted Senate Majority Leader John Thune will no doubt want to get off to a better start than House Republicans did on Friday. Donald Trump had to stage an intervention to get Mike Johnson elected Speaker by reminding his caucus to focus on the mission rather than on inside-the-Beltway feuds and grievances. 

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To be specific, Trump had to lecture Ralph Norman and Keith Self by telling them that they were "screwing it all up" by "being ridiculous":

Mace and Johnson corralled the two holdouts into a hideaway office just off the House floor, where Trump was waiting to talk over speakerphone. The message from the president-elect, a source with direct knowledge of the call told RealClearPolitics, was that “we had the most historic election, and you guys are stepping all over it by being ridiculous.”

“I won all these swing states, but while Democrats are over there sticking together, you two guys are screwing it all up. The American people want relief and the Trump agenda,” Trump told the holdouts, according to a source granted anonymity to describe the call. “You two are screwing it all up.”

Senate Republicans prefer to get down to business, according to CBS News. Thune has told Trump that he has the votes to confirm Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary in the next couple of weeks, a nomination that had drawn the most criticism after Matt Gaetz's withdrawal as the Attorney General pick:

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has privately told President-elect Donald Trump that he believes Pete Hegseth will have the votes to be confirmed as Secretary of Defense, according to three sources.  

When asked for comment, a spokesman for Thune would only tell CBS News, "Two things we don't discuss publicly: Whip counts and private conversations with the president."

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Perhaps none of them want to be seen as "screwing it all up" by "being ridiculous." If so, good.

Hegseth had the highest risk of losing a floor vote, thanks to the allegations and rumors about his personal behavior that erupted after his nomination for Defense Secretary. Thune has a little more wiggle room than Johnson did on Friday, but not a whole lot more. He can lose two Senate Republicans out of 53 on any floor vote before January 20, and three after the inauguration thanks to the tiebreaking vote from Vice President J.D. Vance. 

Before that comes into play, Hegseth has to avoid getting rejected by the Senate Armed Services Committee and survive his confirmation hearing. Thune has that scheduled for January 14, and now that the GOP controls the committees, an endorsing vote shouldn't be a problem. The SASC has not yet updated its website to reflect the Republican majority, but they should have one more vote on the panel. The only question mark among Republican members might have been Joni Ernst, who signaled disapproval at first over Hegseth only to hit reverse quickly when MAGA World came down like a ton on bricks on her head. 

The real suspense will come when the nominations come up for a full floor vote, starting on January 20 after Trump and Vance officially take office. Some of Trump's picks should sail through, such as Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, who might win confirmation by acclamation. (Never forget that the Senate is The Club Of All Clubs.) Others will likely only win on party-line votes, which is enough thanks to Harry Reid's helpful precedent that assures Trump will get most if not all of his appointees into office. 

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In a sense, though, Hegseth's the canary in the coal mine now that Gaetz is out. If Hegseth can get to 50 plus Vance, then so can everyone else, including Kash Patel at the FBI. That probably also includes Robert F Kennedy at HHS, who still might pick up a fellow Democrat or two. From this CBS report, it sounds as though Senate Republicans want to close ranks and get Trump off to a good start on his own terms, as well as demonstrate that they can be a real governing party.

The CBS report was based on anonymous sourcing, though. What are Senate Republicans saying on the record? For the most part they're remaining mum, although Majority Whip John Barrasso sounded confident while speaking to Fox News. Well ... confident enough, anyway:

Barrasso on Fox on confirming Trump's cabinet: President Trump has made strong, bold choices as nominees for his cabinet. And job number one right now for the Senate is to get each and every one of his nominees confirmed, get them in place as soon as we possibly can. And specifically the national security team after the heartbreak of what happened in New Orleans. So Kash Patel, Pam Bondi. But across the board, we're going to have hearings every committee next week so we can get some of these nominees confirmed. The day that President Trump takes office, two weeks from today, and for me, that day can't come soon enough.

Barrasso on Fox on if Murkowski/Collins could oppose some Trump nominees: I think every member of the Senate wants to watch the hearings, listen to what they have to say in front of the committee. They've been meeting we've had hundreds of meetings so far with the nominees. Many of the senators met with many of the nominees. I've met with most of them. I've gotten very strong, positive reports from the senators I've talked to. The nominees are all presenting themselves in good, positive light. And I'm looking forward to making sure every one of them gets confirmed.

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Lisa Murkowski is probably the bigger wild card of the two. Susan Collins usually votes in support of confirmations by Republican presidents, even with reservations. And let's not forget that John Fetterman could end up crossing the aisle on these nominations, particularly for Hegseth and Kennedy. The 'maverick' Senate Democrat gave both the courtesy of a meeting and offered some positive comments about their engagement. If either or both of these two Republicans support Hegseth, Kennedy, and Tulsi Gabbard as DNI, Fetterman might be tempted to make a point by voting aye.

Speaking of Rubio, though ... What timing does Thune have in mind? Given the narrow nature of these votes, Thune will need Rubio to keep his seat in the Senate while some of the closer-run nominations come to the floor. Does Thune hold off on Rubio to the end? Or can Rubio hold both jobs at the same time for a short period of time? Either that, or Rubio will need to resign soon and allow Ron DeSantis to appoint a replacement before January 20. 

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