Gee, then who might be the "problem" most vexing the new regime in Syria? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
In the immediate aftermath of the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Israel moved quickly to destroy Assad's military assets. They also seized the demilitarized zone along their Syrian border to prevent some of the Islamist rebel groups from starting a war. Those moves got condemnation from the UN and some Western countries that have nominal alliance with Israel.
According to the new regime's governor in Damascus, however, it's water under the bridge. Maher Marwan spoke to NPR as a representative of the new national government to emphasize that they want a peaceful co-existence with Israel. Even the destruction of military assets by the IDF was "natural" fear of the situation in the immediate aftermath of Assad's fall, Marwan declared:
"Israel may have felt fear," Marwan said. "So it advanced a little, bombed a little, etc." Israel has been striking strategic military installations in Syria since the regime fell and seized parts of the Golan Heights, stoking fears of annexation. And yet Marwan said this fear was, quote, "natural" and that, as a representative of the capitol Damascus and of the political point of view of President Ahmed al-Sharaa and the foreign ministry, he has a message.
"We have no fear towards Israel, and our problem is not with Israel," he said.
"And we don't want to meddle in anything that will threaten Israel's security or any other country's security," Marwan added. He made no reference to Palestinians or the war in Gaza. This is a line in keeping with the new Syrian government.
This comes in response to a cautious olive branch from Jerusalem. Earlier this month, Benjamin Netanyahu offered an opportunity to reset the relationship with Damascus, but not without specific preconditions:
Israel has also signaled its desire to have “correct ties” with the new regime, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in early December, but “if this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it.”
He warned the rebels that “whoever follows Assad’s footsteps will end up like Assad did. We won’t allow an extremist Islamic terror entity to act against Israel from beyond its borders… we will do anything to remove the threat.”
At the time, al-Sharaa signaled an equally cautious if somewhat hopeful response to Netanyahu, with at least one eventual condition of his own. Like Marwan, al-Sharaa sounded as though he'd treat bygones as bygones, as long as they remained bygones:
“We do not want any conflict whether with Israel or anyone else and we will not let Syria be used as a launchpad for attacks. The Syrian people need a break, and the strikes must end and Israel has to pull back to its previous positions,” al-Sharaa told The Times of London earlier this month.
Al-Sharaa also reiterated his position that Israel had a right to target Iranian-backed forces prior to the government’s fall earlier this month, but has no legitimate basis to keep operating in Syria.
Just how serious is this opportunity? Marwan wants the US to broker Syrian relations with Israel, a very good sign that al-Sharaa wants to pull Syria completely out of Iran's orbit:
Sharaa has previously said that he does not want conflict with Israel. Marwan went a step further. He called on the United States to facilitate better relations with Israel. ... "We want peace, and we cannot be an opponent to Israel or an opponent to anyone, he said.
That sounds as though al-Sharaa wants to include Syria in the Abraham Accords, or at least position itself to become part of it. That would move Syria firmly into the same camp as the other Sunni Arab states, a natural fit for a country that is 70% or more Sunni in composition. By comparison, Deutsche Welle explained last week, Shi'ites only make up three percent of Syria's population, and Assad's power base of Alawites only ten percent.
If Syria aligns itself with Jordan and Saudi Arabia, not to mention the US, it means Iran's dreams of regional hegemony are dead. It also likely means that Hezbollah will die along with it, since the only resupply possible would have to come through the air, and Israel will no doubt partner with its Abraham Accord partners to interdict any such attempts. That's not to say that Ali Khamenei won't try:
Direct air travel between Tehran International Airport and Beirut has resumed in recent days, notably avoiding Syrian airspace after rebels seized control in Damascus. According to a regional source familiar with Tehran's internal discussions cited by The Sunday Times, Iran may attempt to transform Beirut into a new "hub" for deliveries after disruption to the traditional overland routes that previously transported Iranian rockets and other weaponry to Hezbollah through Syria.
Such an aerial supply operation would violate the recently established ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, potentially triggering renewed conflict. "Western countries are concerned that Iran has lost [Damascus as] its go-to airport in the region for smuggling weapons and is now trying to turn Beirut airport into its new logistics hub, just as they did in Syria," the source told The Sunday Times, adding that it "could lead to the next escalation."
No kidding. Hezbollah is not exactly popular in Lebanon these days either, and dragging Beirut into a direct conflict with Israel at the same time that the Syrians might be normalizing relations with Jerusalem will be tough to explain. Syria's rebels can't be the only group tired of letting Iran turn their country into a battlefield for their own purposes, after all. The Abraham Accord will start looking pretty attractive to the other political parties in Beirut as soon as they get over their resentment toward Israel -- but mainly after they get rid of Hezbollah.
It has taken nearly a century for Israel's neighbors to realize that they have more to gain with friendship than they do with war. Now perhaps the people of Iran can remove the last obstacle to peace in the region.
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