Q: When is a deal not a deal?

A: When you talk about it.

That message went out to members of the Israeli Knesset today from defense minister Israel Katz. He briefed MKs that a deal was now closer than it has been in the year since the last hostage-for-prisoner exchange, and promised the deal would get consensus support. However, discussing the terms in public could quash the negotiations, Katz warned. 

Sounds like a Pelosi explanation, but with much more reason for secrecy:

Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly told Knesset lawmakers on Monday that Israel is “closer than ever” to closing a deal with Hamas to free the hostages held in Gaza, bolstering Arab media reports of heavy optimism on the chances for an agreement in the coming weeks.

Katz’s comments to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee were made behind closed doors but leaks of his remarks were reported widely in the Hebrew press.

“Israel is closer than ever to another hostage deal,” Katz was quoted as saying. He added that the less said the better, echoing comments made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday after he discussed with US President-elect Donald Trump the ongoing efforts to free the abductees being held by Hamas in Gaza.

Why not discuss the terms? For one thing, Hamas has a habit of reneging on supposed concessions as a means to increase leverage against Israel. Making the terms public would leave that option open for Hamas by claiming that the deal has been mischaracterized and demanding either more concessions or withdrawing parts of their own offer. Even the Qataris got tired of that for a while and told Hamas leadership to leave the country if they weren't going to negotiate in good faith. 

Of course, that's when (a) Hezbollah still could conduct operations to pin down the Israelis, and (b) Bashar al-Assad still secured the lines of communication from Iran to its proxies. A lot has changed since that last pas de deux.

Katz is apparently serious about op-sec on the latest talks. Even the security cabinet has not been informed of the details, according to the Jerusalem Post:

Security cabinet ministers are being kept in the dark about details of a potential Gaza hostage deal, sources told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

The ministers were supposed to discuss a possible agreement on Sunday at IDF Central Command headquarters, but were never briefed. Several Israeli officials and diplomats familiar with the talks confirmed that “some progress has been made,” but while negotiations are ongoing, details remain vague.

Just how vague are the terms at the moment? According to the Times of Israel report linked first above, Katz offered some ambiguously positive descriptions of Hamas concessions. Supposedly, Hamas is no longer insisting on cessation of hostilities as a primary condition of talks, a huge change from the past year. Katz also suggested that Israeli control of the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors was not an "obstacle" either, which would be an enormous change of position for Hamas. Israel's control of those two corridors would spell an end to Hamas' power in Gaza, and likely their complete destruction with enough time.  

Israel would leap at those concessions in a heartbeat. So what's the hold-up now? According to both reports, Hamas is balking at the numbers of hostages to release in the first phase, and also at the prisoners that Israel is offering in return. That may be the part that Katz wants to talk about least, since Israel will likely end up with an asymmetric exchange again that will keep hostaging as an effective strategy for its enemies. 

On the other hand, Hamas is also mindful that the situation will change shortly again, and for the worse. Donald Trump made that clear today, again:

United States President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that he had a "very good talk" with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, about the status of the war in Gaza.

Trump described it as a "recap call" ahead of his taking office on Jan. 20.

“We had a very good talk. And we discussed what is going to happen, and I’ll be very available on January 20 and we'll see," Trump said.

"As you know, I gave a warning that if these hostages aren't back home by that date, all hell is going to break out," he said.

Given the profound changes in the region this month, there may well be good reason for hope in getting the hostages released. On the other hand, let's not forget that Hamas has a long track record of perfidy on such deals. That we can and should discuss at great length while remembering who the villains are in this conflict.