Hoo boy. And that's without reading the soon-to-be-leaked House Ethics Committee report on Matt Gaetz, too. 

The drumbeats around the GOP campfire yesterday already made Donald Trump's choice for Attorney General look like a longshot. Even one of his top allies in the Senate caucus couldn't muster up any enthusiasm for Gaetz; Ted Cruz just told Newsmax that the process would have to play out on the "surprise" pick. 

A lack of enthusiasm isn't really the problem, the Wall Street Journal reported this afternoon. The problem is outright hostility to the move, so much so that Gaetz might lose half the caucus and fail to even have his nomination clear the Senate Judiciary Committee:

“It’s simply that Matt Gaetz has a very long, steep hill to get across the finish line,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R., N.D.). “And it will require the spending of a lot of capital, and you just have to ask: if you could get him across the finish line, was it worth the cost?”

Cramer said he didn’t think Gaetz would have the votes to be approved by the Judiciary Committee, much less to be confirmed by the full Senate.

One person familiar with the conversations among Republican senators said “significantly more than four” of them are opposed, which would be enough to tank Gaetz’s chances. “People are pissed,” the person said.

Other estimates ranged from more than a dozen Republican “no” votes to more than 30. “It won’t even be close,” another person said.

Keep in mind that Gaetz has no track record of building bridges on Capitol Hill -- just the opposite, in fact. He launched a revolt against Kevin McCarthy in the last session that all but derailed the House for weeks while some of those in the current Senate Republican caucus wanted more focus on the Biden administration than the McCarthy administration. Gaetz had no real reason for that other than a personal grudge, and Gaetz had done nothing to provide for an alternative to McCarthy either. 

So why appoint Gaetz in the first place? Surely Trump knew how much animosity Gaetz had earned through that stunt, even without the Ethics Committee investigation. Trump had urged the House to unite behind McCarthy in January 2023 rather than keep pushing for more ballots on the Speaker vote, and Gaetz refused to accept it. In fact, Gaetz kept voting for Trump instead. Trump stayed out of the fight nine months later when Gaetz introduced the Motion to Vacate the Chair that pushed McCarthy out of the Speaker position, but it certainly didn't escape his attention. 

That was apart from the Ethics Committee probe too, where shoes look primed to drop just in time to embarrass anyone who votes to confirm Gaetz. In fact, one dropped last night:

The woman who was at the center of a yearslong Justice Department investigation into sex trafficking allegations surrounding Rep. Matt Gaetz testified to the House Ethics Committee that the now-former Florida congressman had sex with her when she was 17 years old, sources familiar with the investigation told ABC News. ...

Over the summer, the House Ethics Committee subpoenaed the woman at the center of the probe -- who is now in her 20s -- and she sat for multiple days of testimony where she testified to the committee that Gaetz had sex with her when she was a minor in high school, sources close to the investigation said.

Want to bet that Senate Democrats will have the young woman ready to testify at a confirmation hearing? 

With all of that swirling around Gaetz, why nominate him at all? Senate Republicans are asking that question, and Politico reports that the answer might be found in ... Star Trek:

In that way, it’s a test for every Republican in the Senate to see how they respond to Trump’s wishes. It’s also a test for incoming Senate Majority Leader JOHN THUNE, who won election yesterday — becoming the conference’s first new leader in a generation, as McConnell steps aside — only to have that news dwarfed by the Gaetz story.

Think of it as Senate Republicans’ version of the Kobayashi Maru — the famous exam in “Star Trek” that presents trainees with a no-win situation. It isn’t meant to be passed; it’s intended to reveal something about the people who take it.

What exactly it reveals about Senate Republicans, we’re about to find out.

Maaaayyyyybeee ... but why bother with a Kobayashi Maru test now, when everyone was enthusiastic about the prospects of an all-GOP government? At the moment, it's likely to prove nothing more than the Senate Republican caucus won't rubber-stamp Trump's whims, even if they are prepared to carry his agenda forward. 

Let's hope the next nominee for AG serves to rally Republicans than pick a food fight. Ted Cruz or Mike Lee would likely get unanimity, and both come from solid GOP states that would appoint a Republican replacement. Or Trump could claim that he confused his Matts and go with Matthew Whitaker, who did a credible job as acting AG between Jeff Sessions and Bill Barr for three months after the 2018 midterms. Mike Rogers might be another choice; he's under consideration for FBI Director, but he'd make a solid choice for AG too. 

After Gaetz, the Senate GOP caucus will likely give Trump some latitude, but ... not this much.