Trump to Iran: Karma Is a ...

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Karma takes its own sweet time. Donald Trump may have something more direct in mind -- and he has every motive for following through.

Earlier today, the Department of Justice unveiled indictments against three people involved in an assassination plot hatched by Iran. The targets included Trump as well as an ex-pat Iranian journalist critical of the theocratic regime in Tehran. Two of the conspirators are now in federal custody, but the ringleader, Farhad Shakeri, is now in Iran. 

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And ... oddly talkative:

Three men have been charged in connection with an alleged Iranian plot to kill people in the United States that included an alleged effort to assassinate President-elect Donald Trump while he campaigned for a second term in office, according to a criminal complaint unsealed Friday in the Southern District of New York. 

The complaint is based on a sworn account by an FBI agent that includes what are described as voluntary phone interviews with Farhad Shakeri, an Afghani alleged operative for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. ...

Shakeri’s co-defendants Carlisle Rivera and Jonathan Loadholt, both New York City residents, are being held without bail after appearing before a magistrate judge in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on Thursday.

So the FBI had access to an IRGC spy after he went back to Iran? And Shakeri was willing to expose his co-conspirators by confessing via a phone call to the FBI? That certainly seems pretty odd, although ABC's analysts seem to have missed that point:

It appears that Shakeri tried to arrange this from Tehran:

Shakeri emigrated to the United States but was deported in 2008 after serving prison time for robbery, according to the Justice Department. While in prison, he met Rivera and Loadholt and hired them to target an Iranian American activist living in Brooklyn, according to the complaint.

While she is not named in the complaint, the activist matches the description of Masih Alinejad, a prolific journalist and human rights activist who has been critical of the Iranian government and targeted in multiple plots. Federal prosecutors announced criminal charges last month against IRGC Brig. Gen. Ruhollah Bazghandi in connection with an alleged murder plot against Alinejad.

The IRGC also tasked Shakeri with carrying out other assassinations against U.S. and Israeli citizens located in the United States, including Trump, the complaint alleges.

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Did the FBI flip Shakeri? That doesn't seem to be the explanation. If Shakeri flipped, the indictment wouldn't have charged him, and his identity would remain concealed. By naming him, the DoJ would have put a big target on his back. So why is Shakeri spilling the beans now with the FBI?

Nevertheless, the DoJ plans to prosecute the two other co-conspirators, and are demanding that Iran stop targeting Americans for assassination. That's not really a crime as much as it is an act of war, especially when targeting a former and future president. Trump will get his chance for retribution starting on January 20, and the WSJ reported this morning that he already has plans to do so:

Trump’s approach to Iran is likely to be colored by the knowledge that its agents tried to assassinate him and former top national-security aides, former Trump officials said. The FBI thwarted an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump before he was re-elected president, the Justice Department said in a case unsealed Friday. ...

“People tend to take that stuff personally,” said Mick Mulroy, a top Pentagon official for the Mideast in Trump’s first term. “If he’s going to be hawkish on any particular country, designated major adversaries, it’s Iran.”

he people briefed on Trump’s plans and in touch with his top advisers said the new team would move rapidly to try to choke off Iran’s oil income, including going after foreign ports and traders who handle Iranian oil. That would re-create the strategy that the former president adopted in his first term, with mixed results.

“I think you are going to see the sanctions go back on, you are going to see much more, both diplomatically and financially, they are trying to isolate Iran,” a former White House official said. “I think the perception is that Iran is definitely in a position of weakness right now, and now is an opportunity to exploit that weakness.”

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That much is certainly true. In the last 13 months of war started by Hamas, Israel has destroyed most of Hamas and killed off the leadership of Hezbollah in just a few weeks. Hezbollah in particular served not just as Iran's proxy in its regional encirclement strategy, but also as its forward defense and deterrent against direct Israeli attack. Iran still has the Houthis more or less intact, but the Houthis don't present much deterrence to Israel, nor any kind of forward defense for Iran except in regard to the Saudis. 

Having spent the fortune that Joe Biden provided over the last four years on Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran no longer has its defenses nor its offensive capability, not to mention the money it had. Trump's return may not mean war, but it will mean having their income choked off again, plus the return of a real threat of violent retaliation for Iranian actions, especially their assassination plots against Trump and Americans. 

Biden wanted a peace treaty with the mullahs too much for that threat to be realistic, but Trump isn't an appeaser by nature. And he's certainly not going to pursue appeasement while Iran sends people to kill him. 

If the mullahs are lucky, karma will be the only thing coming for them, unless they decide to throw in the towel and get out of the terror business. 

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