Just how much joy do Democrats have in Pennsylvania? One can measure it with "Bliss," the new campaign ad that dropped this morning by incumbent Senate Democrat Bob Casey Jr. 

Casey wants a fourth term in a state his father ran for two terms as governor -- as a more conservative, pro-life Democrat. Casey has spent his career drifting to the progressive Left, campaigning not just for abortion but also demanding that the State Department celebrate Pride Month, promoting "sanctuary cities" to shield illegal immigrants, and opposing all three Supreme Court nominations from Donald Trump.

In other words, Casey appears perfectly aligned with Kamala Harris. But that's not what Casey wants voters in Pennsylvania to think ... which tells us plenty about who he thinks has the advantage now in the Keystone State. As David argued earlier today, this looks a lot more like desperation than "Bliss":

The ad features a husband and wife of differing party affiliations, who claim that Casey is "independent." And they take pains to point out, as Jim Geraghty notes at NRO, that Casey sided with Trump on ending NAFTA as evidence of his centrism:

On politics, we just don’t agree — except for Bob Casey.  He’s independent. That’s right! Casey’s leading the effort to stop corporate greed-flation and price gouging. Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China to stop them from cheating.

Jim scoffs at this argument, noting that this might be the only time Casey broke ranks to support a Trump initiative. Nate Silver's vote tracker in the Senate shows Casey to be one of the more party-line senators in the Democrat caucus in the first two years of his term (no longer being updated, however):

Even among Senate Democrats, Casey is a partisan. Forty other Senate Democrats were more likely to part with Biden on policy than Casey was in those first two years when Biden and Harris floated one massive hard-Left bill after another. In fact, the only time Casey diverged from Biden's position in that session was when he voted to disapprove arms sales to Saudi Arabia. It had nothing to do with Biden's economic policy.

Here are a few highlights of Casey's votes in support of Biden:

• Opposing a disapproval motion for COVID-19 vaccine and testing mandates by large employers
• Opposed terminating the national COVID-19 emergency in November 2022(!)
• Supported the inflationary, $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP)
• Opposed imposing additional sanctions on Russia over their gas pipeline just before Russia invaded Ukraine
• Opposed a disapproval motion for CDC mask mandate on planes, trains, and buses in March 2022

Does that sound like an independent track record? Does it even sound like a sane track record? In fact, on economic policy, Bob Casey owns the raging inflation that Pennsylvanians experienced over the last three-plus years as much as Biden and Kamala Harris do, thanks to his vote on the ARP. 

And PA voters didn't think that was "bliss," not then and certainly not now.

Note well, though, that Casey tries to run with Harris' "corporate greed-flation" and price-gouging argument -- but never mentions Kamala Harris. The only mention of the presidential race in "Bliss" is of Trump, and that's to paint Casey as agreeing with his economic policies. 

What does that say about the state of the two races in Pennsylvania? Plenty. As a three-term incumbent, Casey should be riding high in the polls against first-time nominee Dave McCormick, who ran for the other Senate seat two years ago and lost to Mehmet Oz in the GOP primary. Instead, it looks as though Casey is in the fight of his life, and tracking below the 50% threshold that signifies safety for incumbents. He's currently leading the RCP aggregate 47.8/44.0, but undecided voters are not likely to swing hard to an incumbent if they aren't already in his column at this point. 

It says even more about the presidential race. Casey has bear-hugged Trump in this ad because it's clear that the former president has momentum in the Keystone State. His RCP aggregate lead is a razor-thin 47.9/47.4, but Harris is also the incumbent in this contest. Don't forget too that the polls in battleground states have seriously underestimated Trump's strength in previous election cycles; RCP had Hillary Clinton up 6.7 points on this date eight years ago, only for Trump to win by 0.5% a couple of weeks later. Joe Biden was up 4.4 points four years ago on this date and eventually won, but only by 1.2 points.

If Casey thought Harris would win in his state, he'd be marrying himself to her. If he even thought Harris had a good shot at winning, he'd marry himself to her for her sake. Giving Trump a big ol' wet kiss in a campaign ad like this is a vote of no-confidence in Kamala.