Just how isolated has Yahya Sinwar become in Gaza? Imagine Hassan Nasrallah had the Hezbollah leader chosen to stay out of the bunker last week. The IDF seized his lines of communication in the Philadelphi Corridor and demolished all but one of the Hamas leader's Gaza brigades.

And now it turns out that the IDF eliminated Sinwar's partners in crime. Literally, three months ago, which the Israelis confirmed today:

The IDF described [Rawhi] Mushtaha as Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s “right-hand man and one of his closest associates.” Channel 12 news reported that he was a long-time cellmate of Sinwar’s in Israeli prison, was freed with Sinwar in the 2011 Shalit deal, and was one of the five key architects of the October 7 Hamas invasion and slaughter in southern Israel.

According to the military and Shin Bet, Mushtaha was targeted in a strike in the Gaza Strip three months ago, along with Hamas officials Sameh al-Siraj, who held the security portfolio in Hamas’s political bureau, and Sami Odeh, the head of Hamas’s “general security mechanism.”

The strike, carried out by fighter jets, targeted the officials while they were hiding in a tunnel in the northern Gaza Strip. The IDF says it had “precise intelligence” indicating the officials were in the tunnel.

But until now, they had not been able to confirm that they were killed.

Normally, Hamas and other Iranian terror proxies would announce those deaths. They would celebrate their supposed martyrdom "on the way to Jerusalem," the description used for those killed while fighting/terrorizing Israel. This time, however, Sinwar kept the information close to the vest, because it would have inspired something other than brand loyalty:

According to the IDF, the three senior Hamas operatives were killed in an airstrike around three months ago, but the Gazan terror organization refrained from making an announcement on the matter at the time to prevent morale loss among its fighters.

Just how high can Hamas morale be now? If Mushtaha was as critical to Hamas political control in Gaza, the answer has to be pretty low indeed. The loss of the other two officials makes the situation worse for Sinwar, who can no longer get resupplied and reportedly won't risk too much contact with Hamas negotiators in Doha either. At some point, the erosion of political strength through these casualties will accelerate a Hamas collapse of authority, opening up the possibility of new leadership emerging that aligns with Sunni Arab countries rather than Iran.

The precision of the strike and intelligence is also interesting in light of other initiatives in Gaza. Last week, the Israeli war cabinet considered a proposal to displace 400,000 Gazans in the north in order to lay siege to the area. That sounds as though the IDF has good intelligence that the remainder of Hamas and its leadership have shifted away from the south after the seizure of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar may be looking for a way to escape, or just to survive the onslaught long enough to get a cease-fire that leaves him in nominal control of Gaza. There hasn't been any firm decision on the siege plan, but with attention farther north in Lebanon and Iran, the Israelis may have decided that such plans can wait.

Plus, that won't sit well with their allies, and Benjamin Netanyahu knows it. As much as they may want to seize northern Gaza as a military buffer zone and displace its residents, forced migration would be a political disaster both at home and abroad, including especially in the US. Right now Israel needs to keep its friends closer than its enemies while it sorts out what direction to take with Iran and Lebanon. Sinwar is a luxury in those calculations, a thorn in the side now rather than an existential threat, especially after taking out Sinwar's consigliere and his two capos.

Speaking of foreign support, Netanyahu got some in an unexpected quarter -- France. Former president Nicolas Sarkozy blasted critics demanding that Israel stand down, declaring two days ago that France would never do that if attacked as Israel has been:

Israel has the right to defend itself. Former French President Sarkuzi. I agree, too! This is what we are doing. pic.twitter.com/IAbMl5ASyt

— Shadi khalloul שאדי ח'לול (@shadikhalloul) October 1, 2024

"I can never rejoice at someone's death," Sarkozy said about Nasrallah's assassination. "But Israel was attacked. It's the tragedy of October 7 by Hamas, and it's Hezbollah that led to a massive displacement of the population from northern Israel."

He continued, saying "Israel has the right to defend itself. It has the duty to defend itself. If we, the French, were in the same situation, we would need to defend ourselves. A country must stand tall, and Israel has the right to live standing tall, to live, period, and to live standing tall. From this perspective, I say they were right."

They were, and they still are. Now we just need to wait for Israel's response to Iran's massive attack.