Perhaps the only surprise here is that it's not a surprise. As many people had predicted, Donald Trump selected Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) to run on the GOP presidential ticket. Vance had appeared to have the inside position on the veepstakes track for weeks, and didn't get eclipsed by the events of this weekend:

After lengthy deliberation and thought, and considering the tremendous talents of many others, I have decided that the person best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States is Senator J.D. Vance of the Great State of Ohio. J.D. honorably served our Country in the Marine Corps, graduated from Ohio State University in two years, Summa Cum Laude, and is a Yale Law School Graduate, where he was Editor of The Yale Law Journal, and President of the Yale Law Veterans Association. J.D.’s book, “Hillbilly Elegy,” became a Major Best Seller and Movie, as it championed the hardworking men and women of our Country. J.D. has had a very successful business career in Technology and Finance, and now, during the Campaign, will be strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond….

At 39, Vance will be one of the youngest candidates ever on a national presidential ticket. He only has one partial term as Senator under his belt; his direct opponent, Kamala Harris, had only one incomplete term in the Senate as well when Joe Biden picked her as a running mate. Vance authored Hillbilly Elegy, a book that resonated among Trump's conservo-populist base, and has been a tireless ally for the former and likely future president.

Vance will certainly provide youth and vigor on the campaign trail. He will also be the only veteran on either ticket, and a combat veteran at that in Iraq as a military journalist. He has proven himself articulate on the stump as well as on the page, and has been a promising bench member since joining the Senate less than two years ago. 

The surprising non-surprise comes from the events of the last couple of days, and perhaps since the debate. Trump had already signaled that his strategy was shifting to woo people outside the tent rather than just a base turnout strategy after Biden bombed so badly less than three weeks ago. The question was whether that strategic shift would also impact his selection of running mate, choosing someone who could broaden the appeal rather than excite the base.

Now we have our answer, and a good look at what Trump plans to do. He has already told Salena Zito that he threw out his red-meat acceptance speech for Thursday in favor of a more positive, conciliatory speech to promote unity. We can expect that to continue past the convention too, especially since Biden seems incapable of meeting the moment effectively. 

By choosing Vance as his running mate, though, Trump can keep his base happy and fired up. Plus, it's been clear since Trump's acrimonious split with Mike Pence that he would almost certainly not use the pick to elevate the establishment faction of the GOP again. He wants a partner he can trust, plus someone who can carry on the MAGA agenda and base in case he can't finish the term, and/or into the future. This allows Trump to expand his appeal rather than changing his entire approach. And he can also ask Vance to do some of the rhetorical heavy lifting on the MAGA agenda with certified credibility while Trump himself focuses on conciliation and national leadership.

That's a smart strategy. It's not the only smart strategy that was available to Trump, but it's a rational choice, and not one likely to get much second-guessing this week. 

Update: Beege reminds us of this essay from Jordan Schachtel that proclaimed Vance the right man for the moment:

I started as a critic of Senator J.D. Vance, only to become a great admirer of his political leadership in short order. Unlike his reported finalist peers for the VP nomination under Donald Trump, J.D. Vance is the right choice because he has demonstrated the character, morals, wisdom, and righteousness that is essential for a mission-oriented vice president of the United States. And yes, he has an inspiring, uniquely American story to tell. ...

It shouldn’t come as a surprise why the man from Hillbilly Elegy has the respect and admiration of so many Americans, including President Trump. He doesn’t just talk the talk, but he walks the walk, and his tenure in the Senate proves that. Like Trump, he uniquely appeals, in his own way, to the “forgotten man” across America with his working class roots and “only in America” story. J.D. Vance presents tremendous upside, via a proven track record and an incredible personal story that will directly resonate with tens of millions of Americans, to a campaign that needs to pull off wins in midwestern swing states to secure the presidency. And unlike his VP “finalist” competitors, Vance is the only one who aligns with president Trump on both domestic and foreign policy.

J.D. Vance is the man for this moment, and he perfectly complements Donald Trump’s run for the presidency.

Update: Now, this is funny ...

I can’t tell you how enormously gratifying it’s going be to watch the Vance-Harris debate and finally see Kamala experience what it’s like to be burdened by what has been.

— Duane Patterson (@Radioblogger) July 15, 2024

Update: On the other hand, Vance has been on record with some pungent criticisms of Trump. Bret Baier challenged him on that point recently, and Vance did well in response to admit he was wrong about Trump:

Trump’s running mate @JDVance1 on previously referring to Trump using these terms:

“Might be America’s Hitler”

“I’m a never Trump guy”

“Never liked him”

“Terrible candidate”

“Idiot if you voted for him”

“Might be a cynical a**hole”

“Cultural heroin”

“Noxious and… pic.twitter.com/sAD42QDbqC

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) July 15, 2024

Baier's correct that these will get made into ads by the Biden campaign. I doubt they'll do much to convince anyone, but you don't just leave those on the table either.