Was this just a West Bank drug bust gone wrong? Or did a splinter group of Palestinian radicals attempt to assassinate Mahmoud Abbas for refusing to declare war on Israel?

Earlier, Twitter-based news aggregator Visegrad24 published video that appeared to depict an ambush on a Palestinian Authority patrol, which depicted one soldier falling to gunfire. Initially, they reported it as an assassination attempt on Abbas, but later withdrew it when their source recanted. They reported it as a drug bust gone bad, which made more sense as the vehicle used by the patrol was a pick-up truck — hardly the transport Abbas would use, especially now.

However, BNN reported that a radical West Bank group claimed credit for an assassination attempt. The Sons of Abu Jandal, with ties to the PA itself, had  announced an ultimatum for a military uprising, BNN reports, and the group says it attempted to enforce it:

In a palpable escalation of tensions in the Middle East, an assassination attempt on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has thrust the region into a fresh vortex of conflict. The attack, claimed by the enigmatic ‘Sons of Abu Jandal’, serves as a stark reminder of the intricate political landscape and the multilayered challenges that beleaguer the region.

The Sons of Abu Jandal, a group said to be within the Palestinian security establishment, gave Abbas a 24-hour notice to act against Israel. The audacity of this group not only signifies internal rifts but also echoes the complex power dynamics within the Palestinian territories. This assault on Abbas’s convoy raises questions about his leadership and the existence of factions seeking dominance.

This claim seems rather dubious, too. The group exists, and so did the ultimatum; the Palestinian Chronicle reported it yesterday, as did the Jewish News Syndicate. They picked it up from “Arab media,” which identified the Sons of Abu Jandal as commanders within PA’s security apparatus:

A group of commanders in the Palestinian Authority security apparatus issued a letter threatening an insurrection in Judea and Samaria unless P.A. chief Mahmoud Abbas announces a “total and open confrontation” with Israel.

“If brother Abu Mazen [Abbas] does not issue a clear position within 24 hours, declaring an open confrontation with the occupation by all means, and does not renounce the statements of the Palestinian Authority to [U.S. Secretary of State Antony] Blinken the criminal …, we will not implement the instructions of the security apparatus,” the missive read, Arab media reported on Sunday.

Sunday’s ultimatum was issued by a group calling itself the Sons of Abu Jandal, which claims to have the backing of “dozens” of members of the P.A. security forces, mainly in the northern Samaria city of Jenin.

However, Hurriyet — Turkey’s most prominent news outlet — reports that the attack took place, and that the group did take credit for it:

An armed attack was carried out on the convoy of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and one person was shot. A group called ‘Children of Abu Jandel’ claimed responsibility for the attack.

A group calling themselves ‘Children of Abu Jandel’ carried out an armed attack on the convoy of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas .

It is thought that the person who was shot in the armed attack was Mahmoud Abbas’ bodyguard.

Ehhh … color me skeptical, but not entirely convinced against it either. Messenger reports that Abbas did pass nearby the shooting, but the Palestinians are calling this a coincidence:

A message later posted on X, formerly Twitter, by a Palestinian affairs reporter for Israel’s public broadcaster, Kan, said the gunfire erupted as Palestinian security forces were arresting a drug dealer.

Abbas’ convoy coincidentally “passed nearby without contact,” journalist Elior Levy said, citing a Palestinian source familiar with details of the incident.

That seems a little too coincidental, though still plausible. Ramallah isn’t an enormous city, after all. If this group is made up of ‘commanders’ within the PA security apparatus, the drug bust could have been a ruse to cover an attack on Abbas. That would be precisely the kind of strategy that security forces would employ for such an attempt on a leader, just in case it failed.

But still, the video itself (still up at Hurriyet) tends to dispute this. Someone opened fire on the patrol first, which was guarding (or maybe just accompanied by) a pickup rather than a limousine or armored personnel carrier. The patrol returned fire in the direction of the shooter and assumed cover around the vehicle. If that was an assassination attempt on Abbas by security forces, it would be an incredibly incompetent effort.

More likely: The “Sons of Abu Jandal” seized on the footage of the drug-bust shootout and rushed to claim it as a response to Abbas’ refusal to abide by their ultimatum. And that suggests that Abu Jandal had very few sons, too — although it doesn’t take many to attempt an assassination.

Even if this is less than meets the eye, though, there’s no doubt that Abbas faces the most dangerous time of his career, if not his entire life. He can’t afford to go to war with a fully mobilized IDF, and he certainly can’t attempt to intervene by pushing Hamas out and taking over Gaza. Abbas would be a dead man either way, and he might be a dead man if he does nothing at all. His best option seems to be to issue angry communiqués while Israel destroys his enemies, and then take the first opportunity to re-set Fatah’s authority over Gaza. Israel might be happy with that too, at least as a potentially least-bad option.