BREAKING: US to Demand Pause as IDF Declares Gaza City Surrounded

AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

That didn’t take long. What comes next will take much longer. Especially if Israel takes its military and political advice from the author of the Kabul Collapse. We’ll get to that scoop from the New York Times shortly.

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Less than a week after full-scale ground operations began, the IDF has encircled Hamas’ main operating center, Gaza City. The force’s chief of staff made that declaration not long ago, and also said that the IDF has penetrated the city with some units and are engaging Hamas within it.

The IDF also claimed that Gaza hasn’t seen the bulk of its forces, either:

The Israeli Air Force is bringing less than half of its capabilities to bear in Operation Swords of Iron, IDF Chief-of-Staff Herzi Halevi said in a televised statement on Thursday afternoon.

The IDF significantly advanced and is now “in the heart” of the ground operation in the northern Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces have been operating in Gaza city, Halevi said, adding that it has been surrounded and encircled by the forces.

The warning about IDF forces isn’t meant to humiliate Hamas, although that might be a nice side effect. It’s meant as a warning to Hezbollah and secondarily to Syria, making sure they fully understand why Israel mobilized 360,000 reservists when declaring war on Hamas. This warning doesn’t come out of the blue, either. ISW reports that Hezbollah has sent more forces to Lebanon’s southern border, and Israel apparently anticipates a more coordinated attack in the next 24 hours:

Iranian-backed militants, including LH, conducted six attacks into Israel on November 1 as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. LH claimed four indirect fire and anti-tank missile attacks on IDF positions in northern Israel.[28] Unknown militants conducted two indirect fire and anti-tank missile attacks into northern Israel as well.[29] The IDF continues to conduct airstrikes and artillery strikes on Iranian-backed militants, who are attempting to launch indirect fire from southern Lebanon into northern Israel …

Iran and LH are continuing to promote the expectation in the information space that LH will announce some kind of escalation against Israel on November 3. CTP-ISW previously reported that LH has released two dramatic videos in recent days ahead of LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s planned speech on November 3, creating the expectation of a significant announcement on the Israel-Hamas war.[32] This speech is significant in that it will be Nasrallah’s first public statement on the war. Iranian state media has further amplified the news of the upcoming speech and the dramatic videos, describing them as a “sign of future events.”

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The open-source reports on which ISW relies also indicates that Iranian-backed proxies will escalate attacks on American positions in Syria and Iraq. Thus far, the US has only responded with tit-for-tat retaliations, but that may change if this becomes the start of a much larger offensive. The US carriers in the eastern Mediterranean may have to open up a large response on positions in Lebanon to make the point more plain.

This is why the IDF is emphasizing their reserve strength, but that’s a fluid situation, too. Israel will eventually have to commit more reserves to Gaza as the urban warfare continues, due to both losses and fatigue, but the IDF wants to make sure that both Lebanon and Syria understand that they have plenty of resources to handle two more fronts at the same time.

Surrounding Gaza City isn’t the only field objective within the IDF’s reach. Other reporting shows that Israel has all but cut Gaza in two now, sealing off the northern end that they declared a war zone three weeks ago:

If true, then this leaves Israel exposed on its southern flank, as well as at risk from terrorists in tunnels. That’s a necessary risk for two reasons. One, Israel wants to concentrate on Hamas’ main infrastructure, which is based in Gaza City and extends outward. Two, this allows Israel to treat the southern end of the Strip differently by isolating the main ground operations from it, which opens up avenues for providing humanitarian aid to the displaced.

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If anyone doubts that fixed positions in hostile territory presents deep risks to the IDF, just read about Hamas raids on mobile positions from their tunnel system overnight:

The army said ground forces and tanks clashed with Hamas terror cells in the northern Gaza Strip overnight, killing dozens of operatives, in what The Times of Israel has learned was an intense and chaotic midnight battle that raged on for over three hours following an ambush targeting soldiers from Golani’s 13th Battalion.

In a statement Thursday morning, the IDF troops of the Golani Infantry Brigade had taken part in “prolonged battles” against Hamas terrorists who had fired missiles, set off explosive devices, and hurled grenades at the forces.

The Hamas gunmen tried to ambush the Israeli force at midnight, emerging from tunnels and attacking them with anti-tank missiles, mortars, and drones. They tried to enter the armored personnel carriers and take control of them. More than 20 terrorists were believed to have been killed and several managed to escape, while there were no Israeli fatalities in that fight.

In other words, the IDF finds itself in a precarious position thanks to its rapid success, one that isn’t sustainable in stasis. Which is why, of course, that Joe Biden picked this moment in time to tell Israel to stop its operations so it can negotiate with the terrorist army that insists it will settle for nothing less than Israel’s complete annihilation. Take it away, NYT:

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Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will urge the Israeli government to agree to a series of brief cessations of military operations in Gaza to allow for hostages to be released safely and for humanitarian aid to be distributed, White House officials said on Thursday.

The message comes as President Biden revealed on Wednesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had previously agreed to halt shelling briefly on Oct. 20 to allow for the release of two Americans, Judith Raanan, 59, and her daughter, Natalie Raanan, 17.

Mr. Blinken will push for more of what American officials call “humanitarian pauses” in the war when he arrives in Israel on Friday for another round of diplomacy amid fierce fighting between Israeli forces and Hamas, the group that controls Gaza.

Dick Durbin went farther than that, calling for a “cease-fire”:

Both of these calls are utter nonsense, especially Durbin’s rationale about the conflict going on for decades and needing a resolution. That’s precisely what Israel is providing. What has preceded it has been a series of attacks on Israel by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, demands for cease-fires like this that stop Israel from decisively dealing with the terrorists, with bad-faith hudnas from Hamas as a means to organize larger attacks.

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Jim Geraghty has a very good primer on this cycle of futility in NRO’s Morning Jolt today, in fact. And unlike in earlier conflicts, the IDF has itself positioned to end the futility, or at least deal with it directly, with thousands of its troops exposed to Hamas attacks. That is not sustainable on any scale of stasis.

And for what? To reach accommodation with a terrorist network whose only goal is Israel’s annihilation?

If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results, then Durbin and Biden are the leading nutcases in the asylum. If Gazans want the war over, they can capitulate to the Israelis, and either kill or turn over those Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives still alive. Those are the only legitimate negotiations in a war that the besieged deliberately provoked, especially in the despicable, barbaric manner in which they provoked it.

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David Strom 5:20 PM | May 01, 2024
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