Blink? It appears that Tehran has shifted its stance sharply over the last two days. Over the weekend, Iran’s regime threatened to escalate the war if Israel didn’t stop its attack on Gaza, a threat that prompted the US to move a second carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean.

This morning, Tehran suddenly wants to broker a hostage swap:

Iran’s Foreign Ministry claimed Monday that Hamas was ready to release its hostages if Israel ceases its airstrikes along the Gaza Strip — as the number known to have been taken by the terrorist group rose to at least 199.

Hamas officials are “ready” to release hostages, but doing so would be “impossible” under Israeli airstrikes in the region, Iranian Foreign Ministry Nasser Kanaani relayed at a news conference in Tehran.

The terror group “stated that they are ready to take necessary measures to release the citizens and civilians held by resistant groups, but their point was that such measures require preparations that are impossible under daily bombardment by the Zionists against various parts of Gaza,” Kanaani said.

That’s a notable shift from Hamas’ usual hostage demands. One reason they grabbed the hostages was to force Israel to release all Hamas and other jihadi prisoners in their custody. Under the previous ‘rules,’ Hamas could command a high price for each hostage. The Gilad Shalit exchange released over 1,000 terrorists in exchange for the one Israeli soldier — and at least a couple of those are now identified as leading figures in the Gazan invasion and mass-murder spree that targeted civilians on October 7th.

This looks like a belated recognition that the ‘rules’ have changed for good, both from Hamas and Iran. It’s also a pretty good indication that the airstrikes are having a serious impact on Hamas, who couldn’t care less about civilian deaths in their war. They strategize for maximum ‘collateral damage’ as a way to handcuff Israeli military action against them. That’s why Hamas has blocked escape routes out of Gaza City to the south — to have Israeli military advances create so many civilian deaths so that the international community will demand they stop in the name of “proportionality.”

So how effective have these strikes been? This shows one attack that preceded this “offer,” a precision strike in southern Gaza on a key Hamas intel post:

🎥Watch: IDF assassinates the head of Hamas General Intelligence in Khan Yunis

Read full story: https://t.co/o9JqkIdZ9k pic.twitter.com/GeqC1tdaQV

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) October 16, 2023

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Monday afternoon that it had successfully assassinated the head of Hamas General Intelligence in Khan Yunis.

In addition, the IDF presented evidence of their precise strikes on vital underground Hamas facilities and the terrorists responsible for launching rockets into Israel.

Lieutenant Colonel Y, the commander of the Southern Firepower Division, previously known as artillery, said: “Since the commencement of Operation Swords of Iron, the IDF has effectively dismantled numerous critical components of Hamas infrastructure, targeting terrorists, and more. The success of this campaign can be attributed to the concerted efforts of various army units, in coordination with the Southern Homefront Command.”

Small wonder that Iran wants to bargain for an end to the airstrikes. The Israelis may have been caught napping on October 7, but apparently their intelligence has caught up in this war. The scope of the miscalculation from Hamas and Iran is becoming more apparent every day, especially their miscalculation about the outrage over the sick and disgusting slaughter of children and babies by Iran’s proxy. Not only are the Israelis enraged to the point of a full-scale war in multiple directions, the horror of it has negated any opposition to it in the West.

Nonetheless, don’t expect Israel to trade anything at this point. Hamas can and should surrender the hostages because seizing them was a war crime, and they should surrender everyone that participated or enabled the horrors of October 7. Besides, no one knows if any of the hostages are still alive, and there won’t be any way to find out for sure until Hamas produces them.

It also misses the point that Hamas made clear enough in its mass-murder spree. As difficult as this calculation is now, the hostages are secondary to the existential threat Hamas poses while in command of any territory. The only way Israel can survive is to dig Hamas out of any turf from which they can launch annihilation attacks on Israel’s citizens. That’s why Israel declared war — to end the existential threat, not to simply rescue hostages. The desperation of both Hamas and Iran strongly suggests that the Israelis are making good progress on that front.

Addendum: Hamas has apparently grown desperate enough to target Jerusalem with its rockets:

Incoming rocket sirens are sounding in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, as terrorists in the Gaza Strip launch long-range rockets at Israel’s largest cities in possibly the largest barrage since the initial salvo on October 7.

Several loud explosions are heard over the areas, but there are no immediate reports of injuries or damage.

After this week, Israelis will not be satisfied with a return to the rocket-barrage status quo.