For Ukraine’s Independence Day celebration, Volodymyr Zelensky brought some real fireworks right to the heart of Russia’s occupation. Officials in Kyiv announced this morning that they have landed forces on the western shores of Crimea, raised the Ukranian flag, and have engaged and destroyed Russian forces near two settlements.

No word yet from Russia, but this would be bad news indeed for Vladimir Putin if this beachhead succeeds. If it is a beachhead, that is:

Special forces landed on the western shore of Crimea, near the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak, in a joint operation with the country’s Navy, according to Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.

“While performing the task, Ukrainian defenders clashed with the occupier’s units. As a result, the enemy suffered losses among its personnel and destroyed enemy equipment,” the intelligence agency said.

While they were there, the Ukrainian unit also raised the national flag, it added.

Russia hasn’t commented yet, but their milblogger and nationalist community claims that this was just a sabotage mission. They claim that the Ukrainians staged a raid and then fled under fire in the direction of Odesa. Another source in the Donetsk People’s Republic (the pro-Russia government recognized by Putin) claims to have destroyed the beachhead and “liquidated” 15-20 people. How this information came to Donetsk from the western shore of Crimea has not yet been explained.

CNN calls this “one of the most daring moves yet,” which it certainly would be, as well as one of its riskiest, assuming it is more than a raid. The lines of communication to the western shore of Crimea are aspirational more than solid; Russia still has a Black Sea navy that could easily cut it off. If Ukraine means this seriously as a move on Crimea, it would force Ukraine to shift its counteroffensive efforts to the Kherson theater and move west to relieve pressure on a beachhead on the shore. That is, unless the point of this landing is a feint to get Russian troops committed away from a renewed effort to push east from Kherson to squeeze Russia out of the Donbass.

So far, it’s tough to tell exactly what the Ukrainians have in mind with this move. Indeed, it’s not clear yet whether this is even intended for a sustained mission. The BBC report from Kyiv makes it sound more like an Independence Day thumb in the eye to Russia, and a momentary humiliation for Putin:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky released an Independence Day message on X, formerly known as Twitter, rallying his countrymen to help maintain the country’s independence.

“In this fight, everyone counts. Because the fight is for something that is important to everyone,” Mr Zelensky said.

Independence Day has gained increased significance among Ukrainians since Russia’s invasion started in February 2022, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. It is now the country’s third most important holiday, behind only Easter and Christmas.

The point of this may be just to demonstrate Zelensky’s intent to restore Ukraine’s full pre-2014 sovereignty, full stop, and to raise morale by conducting a raid of opportunity where the Russians might be caught napping. That would be a morale booster for Ukrainians, and those do matter in long, protracted wars. (Consider the value of Doolittle’s raid on Tokyo, which was much more about domestic morale after Pearl Harbor than actual military advances.) A raid might also force Russia to shift its stretched resources to cover more attacks in Crimea — although one might expect Russia to hold off unless more troops land on either side of the peninsula.

Still, Ukraine has begun talking about the post-liberation plan for Crimea already. They clearly want to make sure everyone knows that the push is coming soon, even if it might not be today:

Crimea as Europe’s new tourist hub. The government aims to transform the peninsula into a year-round resort, positioning it as a destination for leisure and recreation. The plan involves the creation of new hotel infrastructure and public spaces under the “Crimea365” brand.

Uniting Crimea with Ukraine, Europe and the world. Integrating the peninsula into the European transportation network TEN-T. The plan includes the construction of four highways, two international-level airports, as well as dismantling of the Crimean Bridge for safe navigation in the Black and Azov seas.

Power industry. Integrating Crimea into the ENTSO-E energy system and promoting renewable energy sources. Plans involve developing the Black Sea gas shelf using cutting-edge technologies, with the government envisioning Crimea as a net energy exporter.

ISW’s latest assessment, prior to the landing, provides some evidence that Ukraine was serious enough about this operation to make strategic attacks just beforehand. Even without the context of an apparently successful landing on the beach, ISW noted that the success of the precursor attack had something to say about Russian operational competency, none of it good:

Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian S-400 air defense system in Crimea on August 23. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced and posted footage of a strike on a Russian S-400 long and medium-range anti-aircraft missile system near Olenivka, Crimea (116km northwest of Sevastopol and about 140km south of Kherson City).[48] GUR reported that the strike destroyed an air defense installation, an unspecified number of missiles, and killed nearby Russian military personnel, though the footage only shows part of the installation exploding.[49] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger suggested that Ukrainian forces likely used a Harpoon, Neptune, or Brimstone II missile to strike the air defense system.[50] Russian milbloggers expressed concern that Ukrainian forces were able to operate a drone and record footage of the strike roughly 120km behind the current frontline.[51] A Ukrainian strike on a Russian air defense installation deep within the Russian rear indicates a number of Russian tactical failures, particularly that Russian forces were seemingly unprepared to intercept the missiles with the air defense system or operate electronic warfare jamming to prevent Ukrainian forces from operating a drone in the area. These tactical failures, though surprising and serious, may not be indicative of wider systemic issues within Russian air defenses, however.

How do you think they feel about it now, even if all the landing turns out to be is a hit-and-run raid? These kinds of operations are not just morale-impacters for Ukraine, after all.