And then there was … one fewer, anyway. Larry Hogan made a splashy exit from the Republican presidential-contender field this morning, or as splashy as one can get while barely showing up on voters’ radar. Widely expected to toss his hat in the ring, Hogan instead decided that he will return to the private sector.
Why? Out of a sense of loyalty to the party and to the country, Hogan says, by making it tougher on Donald Trump. “I didn’t want to have a pile-up of a bunch of people fighting” for the GOP presidential nomination, the former Maryland governor told CBS News’ Robert Costa. “Right now, you have Trump and DeSantis at the top of the field,” he continued, “soaking up all the oxygen, getting all the attention, and then a whole lot of the rest of us in single digits. And the more of them you have, the less chance you have for someone rising up.”
True enough, but also a rather self-interested view of the futility most will have in a 2024 race with Trump and DeSantis. Hogan gave a more altruistic spin later:
BREAKING NEWS: Former MD @GovLarryHogan tells @costareports, in a @FaceTheNation with @margbrennan exclusive, that he will not seek the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. “I didn’t want to have a pileup of a bunch of people fighting,” he says. More at 10:30am ET. Tune in. pic.twitter.com/1voXeWfwTW
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) March 5, 2023
Hogan released this statement at about the same time this clip aired:
I have long said that I care more about ensuring a future for the Republican Party than securing my own future in the Republican Party. That is why I will not be seeking the Republican nomination for president.
My full statement on the 2024 Presidential race. pic.twitter.com/1uanfEkjkp
— Governor Larry Hogan (@GovLarryHogan) March 5, 2023
There is a lot of truth to unpack in this statement, even if it does come from someone who never had much of a chance at the nomination. Hogan seemed more authentic about that in his chat with Costa, acknowledging that he had no real chance to break out and seriously contend for the nomination. In this reading, Hogan sounds as though he’s sacrificing something to take a stand and limit the field in order to get the party to “move on from Donald Trump.”
That’s not to say he’s wrong, however. The more people who jump in the race, the more it can fragment in a way that allows Trump to compete more effectively. If people think that the GOP’s best path forward is a new candidate, then you will push for others to reconsider a run in 2024, especially given DeSantis’ rise. For those purposes, you’d want the most binary choice possible: Trump or Not Trump? If there are 15 Not Trumps, as there were in 2016, it won’t take much for Trump to prevail even with a smallish plurality in early primaries.
We may already be seeing that reality dawning on the field. Most of the presumed Senate Republican contenders — Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Joni Ernst, Rick Scott — have already demurred, although Tim Scott still seems interested. Nikki Haley jumped into the race and barely made a dent thus far in polling dynamics, and there’s little reason to think that other Trump administration figures like Mike Pompeo and Mike Pence will see enthusiastic responses either. Other governors such as Kristi Noem and Glenn Youngkin could have an impact — perhaps especially Youngkin and his success at flipping blue Virginia — but DeSantis’ ability to seize the headlines and the donors may already be freezing the field.
And so Hogan’s move – and especially his statement may end up shaming them out of the race to get closest to that binary choice. He’s challenging them to justify their entry in the context of the Trump/Not-Trump choice for the GOP, or to admit that they’re running to “sell books,” a clear dig at Pompeo in particular. Regardless of what one thinks of Hogan, he’s framing this correctly and a lot more explicitly than the others who have demurred in this cycle.
Will it work? Shame is a pretty weak impulse in politics these days … but still worth an attempt nonetheless.
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