And then there were two … officially, anyway. Former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley tossed her hat into the 2024 ring, becoming the first official opponent of Donald Trump for the GOP nomination.

Haley won’t be the last, of course, but she will get the media attention from entering the race before the crowd. And she’ll likely get Trump’s attention too, at least that which he can spare from his current effort to find a derogatory nickname for Ron DeSantis:

Get excited! Time for a new generation.

Let’s do this! 👊 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/BD5k4WY1CP

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) February 14, 2023

“Time for a new generation” will likely be the rallying cry of the entire field. If Democrats were smart, they’d make that bipartisan. Since they’re not and are almost certain to rally behind Joe Biden despite his age and incompetence, Republicans have a real opening if they pursue this strategy.

Would Haley carry that banner best? Duane offered our VIP members a lengthy and detailed pro/con look at a Haley candidacy yesterday, so be sure to check that out. The biggest question about Haley, though, will be her ability to compete on a national platform after having spent the last several years out of the public eye. It has been over four years since she held any public office, and six years since she left South Carolina’s governor’s office. While Trump will remain relevant no matter what thanks to his core MAGA loyalists and DeSantis’ relevancy may not yet have peaked, Haley’s been essentially on the sidelines for a long while.

The video above is a good start. It reminds viewers of her executive experience in South Carolina, especially in crisis, as well as her foreign-policy experience at the UN. It dodges around her connection to Trump’s administration, but one has to wonder whether Haley’s including her former boss when declaring that she knows how to deal with “bullies.” Haley offers a good line at the end of that argument: “And when you kick back, it hurts them more if you’re wearing heels.” That also clearly reminds Republicans that they could have a chance to make history with this nomination, especially if Democrats are dumb enough to push Biden out there again. It also includes the requisite attacks on the woke, the socialists, and most of the GOP betes noires (except, interestingly enough, the media).

All of that makes a great campaign launch video, and this definitely qualifies. But what does Haley have to offer? She spent two years in the Trump administration and acquitted herself well in her work at the UN, without a doubt. But again, Haley hasn’t done much since leaving that position in December 2018, and while she name-checks the GOP betes noires, she’s been out of that fight for a while. Trump himself has been immersed in it, but so too has Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin, who’s term-limited in Virginia and likely looking to move up in class. They have been on the front lines all along, and both have scored big wins while Haley stayed out of the game.

Plus, the “time for a new generation” may not resonate entirely on age within the GOP. It might also connote a truly fresh start and some distance from the Trump administration. Haley will have at least a taste of the conundrum likely to face Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, and even John Bolton if they follow through and enter the primary as well. They’re going to have to sell themselves as part of a return to the Trump agenda — but if Trump’s running, why wouldn’t voters choose the original? And if voters want a “new generation,” then they’re not going to embrace the Trump administration figures in the race, and Haley’s very much included in that class.

Still, Haley’s successful in South Carolina and the way she has defused the racism issue on several occasions — including the Confederate-flag impasse after a church massacre in Charleston — shows her ability to govern. It also provides a huge asset to the GOP in its efforts to oppose the CRT drenching of education and business in a way that DeSantis and Youngkin can’t match. That’s why Haley leads with her story as a daughter of immigrants who understands the promise of America. In this political environment, Haley’s narrative may be exactly what the GOP needs to carry on that fight at the national level.

If, that is, Haley can campaign as well as she governed six years ago. Presidential campaigns have humbled more than a few well-regarded governors in the past, and might do so again this year. And that warning doesn’t just apply to Haley.