Have we begun to play “Let’s Make a Deal” through the media? Or has the White House begun leaking its negotiations for the release of Paul Whelan because it got surprised yesterday by criticism from both Republicans and Democrats over their last trade?
It is interesting to see the rapidity and comprehensiveness in which “US officials” have briefed CNN on the background of yesterday’s trade. Joe Biden approved the trade of Viktor “Merchant of Death” Bout, the world’s foremost arms trafficker to terrorists, for WNBA player Brittney Griner because we didn’t have anyone else Vladimir Putin wanted. The man Putin really wanted we literally don’t have:
Russia refused to release Paul Whelan alongside Brittney Griner unless a former colonel from Russia’s domestic spy organization currently in German custody was also released as part of any prisoner swap, US officials told CNN, even as the US offered up the names of several other Russian prisoners in US custody that they would be willing to trade.
The US was unable to deliver on the request for the ex-colonel, Vadim Krasikov, because he is serving out a life sentence for murder in Germany.
Krasikov’s name came up repeatedly in press coverage, but that seems like a pretty ridiculous demand from Putin regarding a trade for an American. Supposedly Putin wants “parity” in exchanges, but Krasikov isn’t serving time for espionage. He assassinated a Chechen dissenter in 2019, and did so in Berlin. Europeans have grown tired of dealing with Russian assassins, and they aren’t going to start springing the ones that were incompetent enough to get caught at it.
The same “US officials” told CNN that Biden and his team tried to get Germany to deal Krasikov anyway. That is a shameful request, considering Putin’s murder spree in Europe. Germany apparently told Biden to pound sand, although they likely put it more diplomatically.
CNN’s sources then outline the other offers Biden’s team made. At least these seem more in line with Putin’s “parity” demand:
The US made several other offers to the Russians, sources said, to try to get them to agree to include Whelan in the swap. Among the names floated by the US was Alexander Vinnik, a Russian national extradited to the US in August on allegations of money laundering, hacking and extortion. The US also offered to trade Roman Seleznev, a convicted Russian cyber-criminal currently serving a 14-year sentence in the US, sources said.
Did the US actually make those offers? Vinnik’s attorney says it’s the first he’s heard that his client could get bargained into a swap:
A lawyer for Seleznev did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Frédéric Bélot, a lawyer who represented Vinnik in France before his extradition to the US, told CNN on Friday that he was not aware of any current discussions between Moscow and Washington over including Vinnik in a potential prisoner swap.
That doesn’t mean that Vinnik didn’t get proposed in talks. It does suggest, though, that Putin really wanted to outplay the Biden team in a way that was undeniable. And all of these leaks today suggest that the White House knows he succeeded. Getting Bout back for Griner is so lopsided that it will permanently color any future trade discussions, plus incentivize Moscow to arrest Americans to use as leverage.
Speaking of Bout, does this sound like a man who’s ready to retire to the countryside?
Mr. Bout spoke in an interview Friday for Russian state television with Maria Butina, the Russian member of Parliament who herself once served a little over a year in U.S. prisons. Ms. Butina, who became a minor celebrity in Russia after her conviction in the United States for operating as an unregistered foreign agent, called Mr. Bout “a small person in big geopolitics.”
The interview was a sign that Mr. Bout, too, could take on high-profile status within Russia after returning home — in his case, 14 years after his arrest. Russian state television covered his late-night arrival at a Moscow airport, with a reporter saying he welcomed Mr. Bout along with “all of us who offered words of support.”
“The West thinks that they didn’t finish us off in 1990, when the Soviet Union started to collapse,” Mr. Bout told Ms. Butina, repeating President Vladimir V. Putin’s talking points and describing himself as a victim. “They think they can destroy us again and divide Russia into many parts.”
Putin wanted Bout back for a reason. His war in Ukraine has turned into a disaster and he’s running out of arms for soldiers he mobilized as reinforcements. It won’t be long before Bout not only arms up Russia’s forces but also the same terror groups that share his hatred for the West. A lot of people will die when Bout gets his business revved up. But hey, at least the WNBA got its player out of the deal.
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