Has Ukraine gotten into position to liberate Kherson and cut off Russian communications with Crimea? Moscow announced overnight that their forces, which had already displaced civilians on the western bank of the Dnipro near Kherson, would now evacuate civilians within 15 kilometers from the eastern bank as well.

Vladimir Putin’s spinmeisters tried selling this as a move to a stronger defensive and protection against a WMD attack. This forced evacuation in reality strongly suggests that Russia expects to get pushed across the river and needs to set up a run for it:

Russia ordered civilians to leave a sliver of Ukraine along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, a major extension of an evacuation order that Kyiv says amounts to the forced depopulation of occupied territory.

Russia had previously ordered civilians out of a pocket it controls on the west bank of the river, where Ukrainian forces have been advancing to capture the city of Kherson. Russian-installed officials said on Tuesday they were now extending that order to a 15-km (9-mile) buffer zone along the east bank as well.

Ukraine says the evacuations include forced deportations from occupied territory, a war crime. Russia, which claims to have annexed the area, says it is taking civilians to safety because of a threat Ukraine might use unconventional weapons.

No one believes that claim. It’s clear that Vladimir Putin would like to use a dirty bomb as a terror weapon if he thinks he could get away with it, as part of the hoary Russian “escalate to de-escalate” strategy to force Ukraine into a settlement on Putin’s terms. It’s not working, however; not even Putin’s apologists think Ukraine would detonate a dirty bomb in their own territory while their troops fight to advance through it.

Instead, this is just a maneuver to cover a retreat with human shields in hopes to keep Ukrainian forces from creating an all-out rout on the Kherson line. Putin apparently has given up on his main war objective, which was to secure ground lines of communication between Russia proper and Crimea through Kherson, and then from there attempt to seize Moldova, in whole or in part. After watching his forces collapse in Kharkiv and get shredded in the process, Putin this time wants to shamefully prop up civilians to protect his troops in the retreat.

ISW also sees through these maneuvers, reporting on them last night before the Western media caught up to the story. Their analysis concludes that the occupying forces are looking to create excuses for what looks like an imminent and humiliating defeat, one that will all but sever Moscow’s land links to Crimea:

Kherson Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo announced on October 31 that his administration is expanding the evacuation zone by 15km from the Dnipro River and cited information that Ukraine is preparing for a “massive missile attack” of the Kakhovka HPP dam, which Saldo alleged will cause massive flooding and destruction of civilian infrastructure.[5] Saldo previously claimed on October 26 that it would be “practically impossible” to destroy the dam and that even in case of a breach, the water level of the Dnipro River would only rise 2 meters.[6]

The apparent oscillation in Saldo’s position on the Kakhovka HPP indicates that his administration is likely using threats of breach and flooding to perpetuate an information operation with a two-fold purpose: to drive evacuations from the west bank and to explain away a future Russian withdrawal from the west bank. These is no scenario in which it would be advantageous for Ukraine to blow the dam. The ramifications that such an action would have on the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which relies on the water in the Kakhovka reservoir for coolant, and the economic and social implications of flooding over 80 settlements and destroying civilian homes and viable land, entirely preclude the possibility that this is a contingency Ukraine may pursue. Blowing the dam would also make it much harder for Ukrainian forces to achieve their stated aims of liberating the remainder of Kherson Oblast and other territories east of the river. Saldo’s statements are likely therefore meant to encourage residents of the west bank to promptly evacuate and may also establish informational cover for a Russian withdrawal from the west bank. Saldo could be framing the dam explosion as an inevitable and insurmountable obstacle that Russian forces could only avoid by abandoning the west bank and retreating further into Kherson Oblast. Russia’s ability or willingness to physically damage the dam is relatively immaterial—the informational effects of accusing Ukraine of preparing to blow the dam could be sufficient to create rhetorical cover to explain away any future Russian withdrawals.

Russian forces are likely continuing to move troops and military assets across the Dnipro River in anticipation of Ukrainian advances towards Kherson City. Ukrainian military sources reported on October 30 that Russian forces are preparing to move artillery units and weapons from the west bank of the Dnipro River for possible redeployment in other directions.[7] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command additionally noted on October 31 that Russian forces are preparing to evacuate individual units and military equipment from the west bank and have collected watercraft to facilitate the evacuation.[8] Russian-backed Kherson occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov stated that on October 30 Russian forces also began engineering positions in Bilozerka (6km due west of Kherson City) and Chornobaivka (1km north of Kherson City), which is corroborated by imagery posted by reported Russian collaborators of barbed wire defenses in these areas.[9] The fact that Russian collaborators are preparing to defend Chornobaivka is particularly noteworthy, as Chornobaivka is the last settlement along the M14 north of Kherson City. The current frontline lies less than 20km northwest of Chornobaivka, and active efforts to bolster defense here indicate concern for an imminent Ukrainian advance. The simultaneous evacuation of military assets from the west bank and preparations for the defense of critical areas around Kherson City indicate serious anxiety over Russian control of the west bank.

Wars, Winston Churchill drily observed after Dunkirk, are not won by retreats — even wildly successful retreats. Vladimir Putin is no Churchill, and the disaster facing Russia’s military in southern Ukraine could well become more like a Gallipoli or Dieppe than Dunkirk. Or Kharkiv, only on a larger scale and involving Putin’s last remaining combat-capable troops.