Oh my. How bad could things be to get Vladimir Putin’s puppet in the most strategic city in the invasion to start begging for an evacuation? Vladimir Saldo, Moscow’s ‘governor’ in Kherson, publicly appealed for the Kremlin’s help in evacuating the only regional capital captured in Putin’s invasion.

And, let’s not forget, Kherson is also the indispensable link to Crimea, now that the Kerch bridge has been damaged. Deutsche Welle picked up on Saldo’s plea, pushed out on social media:

The Russian-appointed governor of Ukraine’s southern Kherson region has called on residents to evacuate as Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the region.

Vladimir Saldo also made a public appeal for Moscow to help transport fleeing civilians to Russia.

“We suggested to all people of the Kherson region to, if they wish, leave to other regions to protect themselves from missile hits,” he said on Telegram. “In addressing the leadership of the country (Russia), I ask you to help organize this work.” …

The appeal appears to be an indication that a Ukrainian counteroffensive is continuing to advance in the region.

Ya think? Why else would Saldo publicly run up a white flag and start looking for ways to evacuate Kherson? Saldo was sent there to secure the regional capital for resupply and other logistics to Crimea. It’s the very reason for Putin’s invasion — to set up a contiguous Greater Russia through southern Ukraine to incorporate Crimea, and then past that to Moldova.

As AFP reports, Saldo is apparently desperate enough to invoke Putin’s honor to get Moscow to start the evacuation:

In a video posted to Telegram, Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed head of the Kherson administration, said:

We suggested to all people of the Kherson region to, if they wish, leave to other regions to protect themselves from missile hits.

In addressing the leadership of the country [Russia], I ask you to help organise this work.

He added:

We, the people of the Kherson region, know that Russia does not abandon its own.

Actually, the battlefields in the north and in the Ukrainian counteroffensive have shown that to be a shabby lie. Russians have retreated so fast in both instances that they have left large numbers of dead soldiers behind, unburied, which allow Ukrainians an opportunity for some significant intel acquisition. Putin has also made it clear to the military commanders in the Kherson theater that he will brook no retreats from the strategic necessity of holding the city, lest Crimea fall back into Ukrainian hands again after eight-plus years.

How badly is it going for Russians in Kherson, even setting aside Saldo’s desperation? ISW reports that Russian sources concede that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are gaining back territory, and ISW tends to believe Ukrainian claims to have liberated more towns in the northern part of the oblast:

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops conducted counteroffensive operations in northwestern and western Kherson Oblast on October 12. Several milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to push south of the current frontline in northwestern Kherson Oblast and attacking toward Mylove (30km northeast of Beryslav along the western bank of the Dnipro River).[19] Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops are attempting to advance past the Davydiv Brid pocket in western Kherson Oblast, with several milbloggers indicating that Ukrainians attacked toward Ishchenka and Kostromka (both within 10km south of Davyid Brid) from positions near Davydiv Brid.[20] ISW makes no effort to evaluate these claims or make forecasts regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian troops liberated five settlements in northern Kherson Oblast and otherwise maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian ground maneuvers in this area on October 12. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian troops successfully retook control of Novovasylivka, Novohryhorivka, Nova Kamianka, Trifonivka, and Chervone—all settlements in northern Kherson Oblast within 25km south of the Dnipropetrosk Oblast border that Ukrainian forces liberated around October 4.[21] Ukrainian military officials also noted that Ukrainian troops are continuing their interdiction campaign to target Russian concentration areas and military assets in Kherson Oblast to support ongoing ground maneuvers.[22] Residents of Kherson Oblast posted imagery reportedly of the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes near Kherson City in the Chornobaivka and Komyshany areas, in the Nova Kakhovka-Beryslav area, and southwest of Kherson City in Nova Zburivka.[23]

If Saldo’s calling for a mass evacuation, the situation must be declining even more rapidly than ISW sees at the moment.

Regardless, Moscow’s response won’t make Saldo happy. However, the necessity of state-run TASS publishing this piece will be shocking enough for its Russian readers … assuming this makes it into its Russian-language version, of course:

The appeal by Vladimir Saldo, the acting head of the Kherson Region’s military-civilian administration, to the Russian government asking to help to take people to some other regions of the country doesn’t mean the region plans a mass evacuation, Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Kherson regional military-civilian administration, told TASS on Thursday.

“There’s no evacuation. Russia’s regions used to help us. There’s now an appeal [to the country’s government] by acting governor [Vladimir Saldo] related to the increased frequency of shelling of not only Kherson, but also the Berislav district and some other districts of the Kherson Region for a temporary relocation to the Crimean Republic and the Rostov, Krasnodar and Stavropol regions. What matters today is saving people’s lives because shelling continues. But nobody is retreating, evacuating or going to leave the territory of the Kherson Region,” Stremousov said.

The cavalry ain’t coming, comrade. Not unless it’s the Ukrainian cavalry.

Update: To quote Joe Kenda — well, my my my:

#BREAKING Russia to help civilians leave Ukraine's Kherson region pic.twitter.com/0sz7X3wOOK

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) October 13, 2022

That tune changed quickly over the last couple of hours. What happened? According to the Sun (UK), the Russian lines are collapsing 12 miles out from the city — and so is Russian morale:

But as Zelensky’s men continue their lightning counteroffensive, they are said to be narrowing in the occupied Black Sea city.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed Russia was preparing to evacuate civilians in the Kherson region suggesting the possibility that Russian troops will attempt to consolidate a new front line west of the village of Mylove after retreating about 12 miles in the north of the Kherson sector earlier this month.

It said in its daily update: “Heavy fighting continues along this line, especially at the western end where Ukrainian advances mean Russia’s flank is no longer protected by the Inhulets River. …

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s crumbling army is said to be refusing to fight and disobeying orders amid “extremely low morale,” the Kyiv Independent reports.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russian forces have received orders to stop the offensive in some front-line areas.

The reason behind it is “the extremely low morale and psychological condition of the recruits, numerous facts of desertion, and refusing to obey combat orders.

Putin is meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey today. He’s likely pleading for an intervention with the West that will give him a face-saving way out of an utter collapse. If the Ukrainians liberate Kherson, that collapse will come quickly — and what remains of the Russian army may end up trapped.