Down goes Georgia? If so ...

.. then Pennsylvania might not matter. The vote-counting trends became clear yesterday in both Georgia and the Keystone State, where the major urban centers still had most of the outstanding ballots, and most of which had been mailed. Donald Trump’s lead had gotten whisker-thin in Georgia yesterday, and the overnight count put Joe Biden in the lead — but not by much:


Democratic nominee Joe Biden has taken a lead in the vote count in Georgia and is gaining on President Trump in Pennsylvania, inching him closer to a win in the tight race for the White House.

In Georgia, Biden took a lead of more than 900 votes at about 4:30 a.m. Friday morning. The lead has since grown to 1,096 votes.

His lead initially came after Clayton County in the Atlanta suburbs reported a bucket of ballots. Biden had been winning a huge proportion of the votes in that area. Other Atlanta suburbs are still reporting some votes.

In Philly, the votes have almost flipped Pennsylvania too, plus today Allegheny County finally begins to review its problematic 29,000 ballots from a printer error:

In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead stood at 18,229 votes at 6 a.m. and was steadily shrinking. More mailed-in ballots, which Biden is winning by a healthy margin, are still expected to be counted — many of them from the heavily Democratic city of Philadelphia and its suburbs.

More mailed-in ballots are also set to be counted on Friday in Allegheny County, where the city of Pittsburgh is located.

If Biden wins Georgia, then Pennsylvania doesn’t matter — and for that matter, neither does Arizona, where Trump narrowed the race to 48,000 votes overnight. As long as Biden hangs on in Nevada, where the Democrat stronghold of Clark County still has a lot of uncounted votes, this is what the map would look like:


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That’s 275 Electoral College votes to Biden — and the ballgame, at least for now. Without a doubt, Team Trump will demand recanvassing and recounts in all of these states; they have already begun the process in Wisconsin and Michigan. If the counts are off, the recanvass will find it. Recounts and ballot challenges will follow, but margins matter in these cases, too. If the margins get into the tens of thousands, it’s almost impossible for a recount or ballot-challenge process to make changes on that scale.

Do note, however, that if Trump wins Pennsylvania and then comes back in Arizona and Nevada, then he’s at 272 without Georgia. That would make for a very weird map, but it’s still a possibility. And for that matter, Trump could still bounce back in the late ballots from Georgia, but at the moment that seems unlikely.

It’s not over yet. In fact, it might not be over for a while. However, it gets more uphill from here on out for Team Trump.

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