Bloomberg poll: Trump up two nationally in 4-way race

She’s not up 50 points. She’s not even up 5 points. According to a new Bloomberg poll, Hillary Clinton now trails Donald Trump by two points in a four-way race, 41/43, and is deadlocked at 46-all when voters have to choose between just the two major-party nominees. Politico reported the toplines earlier this morning:


As the two candidates prepare to spar at tonight’s first presidential debate, a new poll has Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied 46 percent to 46 percent in a two-way race among likely voters.

The Bloomberg poll, however, has Trump ahead by 2 points in a four-way race, with Trump earning 43 percent to Clinton’s 41. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein comes in with 4 percent.

Hillary has tumbled a bit in this polling series, but the dynamic appears more that Trump has gained ground. The mid-August iteration in the binary question gave Hillary a six-point 50/44 lead, but in June it was even more dramatic at 49/37. The enthusiasm numbers are even more dramatic; a month ago, 35% of her voters were “very enthusiastic” compared to 33% for Trump. Now 43% of Trump voters are very enthusiastic, while only 34% of Hillary voters say the same.

In the four-way race, Hillary has gone from a 44/40 lead a month ago to the 41/43 deficit she now faces. Johnson and Stein have barely budged — in fact, Johnson dropped a point in the same period. That would hint that Hillary has actually lost some support to Trump.

Bloomberg Politics details the demos:

The Democrat had a 26-point lead among female likely voters in June, when she was tested against both Trump and Johnson. She has a 13-point advantage in this poll when measured only against Trump, getting 52 percent to his 39 percent—similar to her 15-point advantage in August.

Among likely voters under 35 years old, Clinton gets 50 percent to Trump’s 40 percent, down from her 29-point margin in August in the two-way race and from her 26-point margin in June in the three-way race. …

Trump is helped by his strength among whites (55 percent to 38 percent), Protestants (54 percent to 39 percent), those with no college degree (50 percent to 42 percent), and likely voters in the South (54 percent to 38 percent).

Johnson is taking some support from younger voters that might traditionally go to a Democrat. Among those under 35 years old in the four-way race, he’s getting 11 percent, with the rest split 40 percent for Clinton and 36 percent for Trump.


Business Insider notes that this poll marks a milestone for Trump in another way:

The Bloomberg result is significant because it shows Trump is above the 44% level, which has previously been the uppermost ceiling of his support in a head-to-head split on RCP’s poll tracker. This is now the sixth time in the race that Trump has hit or broken through that 44% barrier.

Maybe it’s time for another Team Hillary redefinition campaign! Seriously, though, I wonder whether we’re seeing a political version of an Overton Window shift. Three months ago, the idea of a Trump presidency was anathema, but the sheer awfulness of Hillary Clinton and the corruption and lies on her track record has made Trump a practical alternative. The longer that goes on, the more one can talk about a Trump presidency in polite company, so to speak. If Hillary can’t stop Trump in tonight’s debate, that trend may well continue to Election Day no matter how hard the media tries to focus attention on Trump’s character.

The final word, via Allahpundit:


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