Has the Hillary bump begun?

Today, Washington DC Democrats vote in the final primary contest of the cycle, but Hillary Clinton wrapped up the presidential nomination a week ago — and may already be reaping the polling benefits. Today’s tracking poll from NBC News/Survey Monkey parallels last week’s Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll in showing Hillary beginning to move upward. Or perhaps better put, Donald Trump moving downward:

Influence of the events of the past week is evident in the most recent NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll, which shows Clinton leading Trump by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent. The poll was conducted online June 6 through June 12 among 9,355 adults who say they are registered to vote.

Clinton’s gains over the past two weeks in the tracking poll are coming from increases in support among moderates, men and white voters. She narrowed Trump’s margin among men and white voters from double digits in last week’s poll to single digits this week. Clinton picked up 7 points among moderate voters this week and now leads Trump 58 percent to 33 percent among them.

Trump’s margin among male voters dropped from 14 points last week to 9 points this week and he now leads Clinton 51 percent to 42 percent. His 13-point margin among white voters last week also shrank to 9 points this week. White voters now favor Trump to Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent.

Hillary’s status over the past six weeks in this tracking poll has actually been rather flat, as their chart shows. The dynamism in this series has come from Trump, who peaked after winning the nomination, but has declined over the last two weeks:


That doesn’t show Hillary getting a bump as much as it suggests that Trump’s bump from clinching the GOP nomination has begun to fade. It might be easy to dismiss this from the NBC tracking poll, which uses Survey Monkey and might have some people questioning its methodology. However, the same trend has shown up in the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll:


It also appears in the trending chart at Real Clear Politics over the last six weeks:


Polling at this stage is still in flux, and probably won’t fully stabilize until after the conventions. However, Trump has had the nomination clinched for a month longer than Hillary, and one would expect his numbers to stay a little steadier than this, while it’s probably too early for Hillary’s post-clinch bump to start manifesting itself in polls. That’s not a good sign for Team Trump, although it’s early enough for those trends to reverse eventually.

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