NY Q-poll: Trump gets 55% six days out from primary

In Wisconsin, Ted Cruz managed to engineer a 25-point flip in the gap against Donald Trump with intense campaigning — and no small amount of help from Trump himself. Six days out from the New York primary, however, no such momentum has materialized. In the latest poll from Quinnipiac, Trump still dominates with a majority against both Cruz and John Kasich, and looks set to win most if not all of the delegates. The race is closer in the Democratic primary, but still static:

With a 65 – 28 percent lead among black voters, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tops Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 53 – 40 percent among New York State likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Donald Trump has 55 percent of New York likely Republican primary voters, followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 20 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 19 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Today’s results show little movement from a March 31 survey showing Clinton over Sanders 54 – 42 percent and Trump with 56 percent, followed by Cruz at 20 percent and Kasich at 19 percent.

Both primaries show a remarkable amount of stasis. As noted, this result is almost identical to the previous Q-poll, with Cruz and Kasich flipping the order on who got 19% or 20%. But it’s not just the Q-poll series, either, as one can see in the Real Clear Politics curation of polling in New York. It lists eight polls for April, and all eight have Trump with a commanding majority.

Don’t expect any change soon in that stasis, either:

In today’s survey, 6 percent of Republican likely primary voters are undecided, but 22 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

That won’t be enough for Trump to suffer a loss in his home state, even assuming all 22% are supporting Trump now. Actually, of the three candidates, Trump’s support is the most firm at 84%, with 73% of Cruz support firm and only 64% for Kasich. But even if the 36% of Kasich supporters suddenly flip to Cruz, all that does is rearrange a few deck chairs on the Titanic. It’s not going to matter much for delegate allocation, not unless Trump’s support takes an unforeseen hit before next Tuesday.

Technically, New York uses a hybrid form of proportional allocation, both on the statewide level and in each Congressional district. However, candidates have to hit a 20% threshold on both levels to qualify for any delegates, and if one candidate gets 50% on each level, it becomes winner-take-all. Trump looks to be on pace to win all of the statewide delegates based on a majority win. If he wins statewide by 55%, how many CDs will he not win by a majority? Some, maybe, but then the other two are vying to pick up a single delegate in those CDs at the expense of the other. It seems unlikely that either Cruz or Kasich will win more than one or two CDs if they’re getting blown out by 25 or more points in the statewide tally.

In other words, Trump can be reasonably certain at this stage to get most of the state’s 95 delegates. If Cruz wants to put another dent in Trump’s momentum, his campaign will have to focus on Indiana — and California.

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Jazz Shaw 7:31 PM on October 02, 2022