Romney up 5 in FL, 1 in IA

I’ll finish up my poll analysis today with a couple of last-minute polls in two key swing states.  First, corroborating the Mason-Dixon poll released this weekend for a Florida media consortium, Mitt Romney has a significant-if-not-comfortable lead in Florida in the Jacksonville Times-Union/Insider Advantage poll, 52/47:


Mitt Romney’s lead with independent voters has propelled him to a 5-point lead in Florida two days before Election Day, according to a Times-Union/InsiderAdvantage poll released Sunday night.

Likely/registered voters favored Romney 52 percent to 47 percent for Barack Obama, but Romney holds a 25-point lead with independent voters.

“Romney’s lead is made possible by the substantial advantage he enjoys among those who identify themselves as independent voters,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery. “Independent voters have been the determining factor in Florida political contests for many years.”

The poll surveyed 437 voters statewide with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

That is a pretty small sample for a state like Florida, but it corresponds with the earlier Mason-Dixon poll.  The newspaper didn’t release all of the internals, but those it does aren’t exactly surprises.  Obama has more than a 2-1 lead among younger voters, 67/32, but loses all other age demos 30 years old and above by ten or more points, and 17 among seniors (40/57).  Obama has a ten-point lead among Hispanics, better than the Mason-Dixon poll, but Romney’s lead among independents is too high to overcome.

The race is closer in Iowa, but Romney has a slight edge in the latest ARG poll.  He leads Obama 49/48 in a sample that’s D+1 at 36/35/29, but it’s tight all the way through.  Romney also has a one-point edge with independents at 48/47, but wins voters at 50 years and older by nine points (53/44), two better than Obama wins those under 50 (52/45).  Early voters comprise 44% of the sample and give Obama an eight-point lead, while Election Day voters give Romney a seven-point lead.  The D/R/I in 2008 was 34/33/33, and Obama won the state by nine points.  In 2010, it was 31/35/34, so this may lean a little more Democrat than we will see tomorrow.


Finally, we have the USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll:

Voters in the nation’s key battlegrounds have become as enthusiastic and engaged in the 2012 presidential election as they were in the historic contest four years ago, and they finally have made up their minds about President Obama and Mitt Romney.

It’s a tie: 48%-48%.

We don’t get the internals on this at all.  However, I’d say that an incumbent President at 48% and in a tie the day before Election Day is in serious trouble.  Late breaking voters at this point will go significantly more to the challenger, especially when jobs and the economy are the focus and we’re in the middle of a stagnant recovery.

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