WaPo/ABC poll shows a dead heat ...

In 2008, Barack Obama won the national popular vote by seven points in a turnout where Democrats outvoted Republicans by … seven points. According to a new poll by the Washington Post and ABC News, if Democrats could beat Republicans by nine points in voter turnout this year, Obama might just tie Mitt Romney:

A pair of tepid jobs reports, landmark Supreme Court decisions on health-care and immigration laws, and an unprecedented barrage of negative ads have shaped the opening months of the fall presidential campaign. The impact on the horse race: virtually none.

According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney remain in a deadlocked contest, tied at 47 percent among registered voters and basically where they stood in late May.

The new numbers reflect a stubborn constancy: Only twice in 13 surveys over more than a year has either candidate held a lead exceeding the poll’s margin of sampling error. Now, the campaign appears destined to remain extremely close in the final four months before Election Day.

Only if the D/R/I in the vote matches that of this poll sample.  Readers have to trek around a bit to find it, but the D/R/I in this sample is 33/24/36.  In 2008, the split was 39/32/29, and in the 2010 midterms it was 35/35/30, both figures from CNN’s exit polls.  In this case, we have a split that’s wider than the Democratic wave election of 2008, and it can only produce a tie for Obama among registered voters.  That doesn’t sound very promising for Obama, unless one believes that we’re about to see a massive wave election for Democrats that will outdo the 2008 election.

With that sample tilt in mind, some of the down-survey questions are of interest.  For instance, 43% of the respondents think that Obama’s handling of the economy is a good reason to vote against him, while only 36% think it’s a reason to support Obama.  On the Bain attacks, though, 50% think it’s not relevant to the choice, and the rest are split into a virtual tie, with 24% believing it’s a reason to oppose Romney and 23% believing it’s a reason to support him.  Did I mention that this sample has a D+9 tilt?  I believe I did.  Looks like the Bain attacks aren’t even convincing the Obama choir.

Also, on the issues, the split isn’t helping Obama much.  He gets a 47/49 for an overall approval rating, but that drops to 44/54 on the economy.  Despite his big win on ObamaCare two weeks ago (before this survey took place), his approval rating on health care is only 41/52.  On immigration, despite his attempt to pander to Hispanics last month, it’s a dismal 38/52.

Did I mention that this poll has a D+9 split?  I believe I did.  If Obama can’t get above water on approval ratings or break out of a tie with Romney in a sample this friendly, what will happen when Obama has to go head-to-head with Romney in a turnout model that’s closer to 2010 than 2008?  I don’t think it’s as close as the Post thinks, nor do I think it’s going to “remain extremely close” for the next four months … unless they decide to go to the D+13 split they’ve used on occasion.

Trending on Hotair Video
Jazz Shaw 8:31 AM on December 04, 2022