Texas big winner in reapportionment sweepstakes

The results are in from the 2010 Census, and the GOP looks like a big winner in reapportionment.  Texas gets the best deal by far, picking up four seats, while almost every other state gaining is a Republican-leaning state in national elections.  Almost every state that lost a seat goes blue in presidential contests:

Texas gained four House seats and Florida picked up two, while New York and Ohio each lost two seats in the new census count. …

Other winners included Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. They each gained one seat.

States losing one seat each were Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Losing two seats out of New York and Ohio is more like a wash.  While Obama won Ohio in 2008, it is normally considered a Republican state.  It went Republican in statewide elections in 2010.  Obama also won Florida in 2008, but that will almost certainly flip back to the GOP after Democrats got trounced in statewide elections there, too, in November.

Otherwise, this is a nightmare for Democrats, especially in Texas.  Not only do Republicans control the state government in advance of redistricting, they enjoy a large enough advantage now to push through any kind of redistricting they want.  They will restructure the state’s districts to further entrench Republican power, and that gives the GOP an even greater boost in 2012.  Given the large gains made by the GOP in statehouses in the midterms, it puts the Democrats squarely on the defense for reapportionment in many states.

The only states that diverge from this are losses in Louisiana and Missouri for the Republicans, and gains in Washington for the Democrats. Republicans will still have to flip more states than Florida and Ohio to beat Obama in 2012, but Democrats will have to defend a lot more territory thanks to the Electoral College gains in this census reapportionment.

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Jazz Shaw 1:01 PM on December 09, 2022