Florida may follow in Arizona’s footsteps to control illegal immigration in its state — and may start attracting fire from the Obama administration.  The Florida Senate now has a bill on its agenda that would require law enforcement to check immigration status on “lawful contact” with suspects, and to refer those illegally in the US to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.  The bill has an excellent chance of becoming law in a state controlled by the GOP, and could set up a nasty political issue for Barack Obama in 2012:

The first crack at an Arizona-style immigration overhaul has been filed in the Florida Senate, with a proposal that would let law enforcement officers ask suspected illegal aliens to prove their immigration status and could penalize some legal immigrants who aren’t carrying proper documentation.

The bill, sponsored by Senate President Pro Tempore Mike Bennett, R-Bradenton, is the first volley in a likely long and heated debate over the future of immigration policy in the state. Since the passage of the Arizona law last spring, many Florida Republicans – including Gov.-elect Rick Scott – have argued that Florida needs a similar law and campaigned on the issue throughout the summer and into the fall. …

Bennett’s measure would allow law enforcement officers during a lawful detention or arrest to ask for the detainee’s immigration documents if the officer suspects they may be in the country illegally. The bill, however, prohibits law enforcement from using race as a reason for checking the person’s documentation. The bill also penalizes legal aliens who refuse to carry their documentation, with a possible fine of up to $100 and a 20-day jail sentence.

Bennett said his goal with the legislation was for the Legislature to crack down on the criminal elements sometimes associated with illegal immigration, such as gang violence or drug trade. It is not, he said, to punish people who live and work in Florida legally.

In April, Obama went on a weeks-long campaign to fight Arizona over its immigration-enforcement law.  The Department of Justice sued Arizona and won an injunction blocking most of the enforcement provisions in it.  Obama tried leveraging that controversy into a push for comprehensive immigration reform, which quickly backfired when it became apparent that Arizona’s bill was tremendously popular in most states — including Florida, where Rasmussen found 61% of likely midterm voters in September supported Arizona’s approach and wanted a similar law in their state.

The proposal will almost certainly pass in some form, and that means Obama will have to decide whether to repeat his offensive against Arizona with Floridians as the target.  Arizona meant little to Obama in terms of his re-election effort; its small number of Electoral College votes will almost certainly go to the GOP in any case.  However, Florida is a much bigger problem.  Obama won the state in 2008 on his way to a comfortable EC win over John McCain, but key states in that victory have shifted Republican since, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

At this point, Obama can hardly afford to lose Florida, but he cannot attack Arizona while leaving Florida off the hook, either.  Obama could try keeping his own mouth shut and letting Eric Holder pursue a case against Florida, but after his PR blitz this year on the Arizona law, no one’s going to buy a hands-off illusion now.  If the DoJ continues to sue states while the White House pushes back against a border-security-first approach, Obama will lose what flagging support he still has in a critical state just in time for the presidential election.