Although you have to look hard for it, the latest AP/GfK poll shows that the enthusiasm gap is continuing to grow in the final two weeks of the midterm election cycle. Despite sampling problems — such as an eleven-point gap in identification of Obama/McCain supporters when Obama won by seven points, and a partially disguised 32/25/43 partisan split — the desire to elect a Republican-controlled Congress has grown. A majority of likely voters want a Republican-controlled Congress by eight points, 51/43, and the GOP wins the generic ballot by seven, 50/43.
The pollster attempts to hide the partisan split in the sample by assigning leaners to the two parties, coming up with a 43/40 Democrat advantage, but with only 3% identified as independents, and a ridiculous 15% who claim not to know their registration affiliation. Taking out the leaners from the general sample gives Democrats the seven-point advantage as noted above, with Republicans significantly underrepresented in the sample. Among likely voters, it turns to 33/32, D+1 advantage, which more approximates the partisan gap in the general population. However, one can surmise from the sample that the GOP picks up about six points in the AP’s likely-voter model. This also shows 33% as unaffiliated, which may slightly underrepresent those likely voters.
Regardless, the news is bad for Democrats across the board — especially Barack Obama. His standing among likely voters even in this tweaked sample suggests that the last person an incumbent Democrat wants to see on the dais in the final stretch is the President. His numbers on every important issue in this midterm are significantly below water, especially on jobs:
- Overall job approval: 45/54
- Economy: 42/58
- Health care: 46/54
- Federal budget deficit: 38/61
- Taxes: 43/56
- Immigration: 43/55
- Unemployment: 41/58
Even his famed likability has taken a hit. Among likely voters, Obama now has a 52/48 personal favorability rating, with 37% finding him very unfavorable. By comparison, Hillary Clinton gets a 65/34 among likely voters — and George W. Bush gets a 48/51. However, Obama’s not the biggest albatross on the campaign trail; Nancy Pelosi gets a 35/63. Harry Reid is just as bad for Democrats at 29/54.
Democrats as a party do just as poorly on the issues as Obama. When asked which party likely voters trust more, the GOP comes out on top in a clean sweep:
- Economy: GOP, 51/41
- National security: 56/36
- Health care: 47/46
- Federal budget deficit: 52/39
- Taxes: 52/41
- Job creation: 52/40
- Managing the federal gov’t: 49/40
- Social Security: 49/46
- Immigration: 50/39
The two eye-poppers are health care and Social Security. Democrats have owned the health-care issue for decades, but people are clearly unhappy about the power grab by Democrats with ObamaCare. Likewise, they have also been more trusted on Social Security as long as I can recall, but their demagoguery on the subject — and the obvious need for entitlement reform — has finally caught up to them. If Democrats keep trying to use Social Security as their boogeyman, this suggests that they may wind up making the case for their opponents instead of themselves.
Democrats aren’t staging a comeback of any kind. It appears that their fortunes are getting slightly worse the closer we come to Election Day.
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